Let's talk about the NMFS - MRFSS and other catch data collection methods

[DarkSkies]

At the SSFFF meeting the other night, there was a lot of mention as MRFSS as the primary basis for catch data.

This is data taken from a SAMPLE of the fishing population by observers at the dock. If you have ever been asked about your catch when returning from a trip by a person other than a CO, you might have participated in one of these surveys.

The raw survey results are used to build statistical models to project the ACTUAL catches of the species in question. This data is subject to a lot of variables and is claimed by some to be highly inaccurate.

Many specific instances have been given where the data collection methods have been shown to not reflect the accurate sample size and fishermen cross-section. Some people doubt the numbers so much they have stopped believing in them. I tend to be one of those people.

How do you remedy this?

Most of the people involved with the saltwater licensing believe the resulting data stream from the new saltwater license surveys will allow us to make more acccurate recordings of actual catches and thereupon more accurate assessments of the biomass.

I'm not sure I agree with this either, but in this thread I'm trying to show one central theme: That the system we have now for recording our fish catches has too many variables for the scientists to make accurate projections. They then use these inefficiancies against us, claiming "overfishing" when it's possible this is not the case.

[DarkSkies]

Here's an outline I found that seems to explain it pretty well:



INTRODUCTION
Until the 1970's, it was thought that commercial fisheries took the greater part of the total marine fishery catch in the waters of the United States. However, most species of fish in estuarine and inshore areas, as well as many in open waters, are harvested jointly by recreational and commercial fishermen. Catches by the marine recreational fishery are a significant portion of the total landings of many marine species. Passage of the Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MFCMA, 16 USC 1801) in 1976 mandated collection of data for both commercial and recreational marine fisheries. Following several years of testing, a standard method of data collection and statistical estimation was initiated in 1981. Catch, effort, and participation estimates for marine recreational fisheries have been produced since 1981.
Catch, effort, and participation statistics are fundamental for assessing the influence of fishing on any stock of fish. The quantities taken, the fishing effort, and the seasonal and geographical distribution of the catch and effort are required for the development of rational management policies and plans. Continuous monitoring of catch, effort, and participation is needed to monitor trends, to evaluate the impacts of management regulations, and to project what impacts various management scenarios will have on a fishery.

AUTHORIZATION

NMFS is charged with administering a program of research and services relating to the ocean and inland waters of the United States. Collecting statistics on marine recreational fisheries is authorized by:

Section 5(a) (4) of the Fish and Wildlife Act of 1956 (16 USC 742), which provides for the collection and dissemination of statistics on commercial and sport fishing;
Migratory Game Fish Study Act of 1959 (16 USC 760(e)), which provides for a continuing study of migratory marine fishes, including the effects of fishing on the species.
Sections 303 and 304(e) of the MFCMA, (Public Law 94-265), and the re-authorized and amended Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA) (http://www.nmfs.noaa.gov/msa2007/), which require the collection of statistics for fishery conservation and management.
Sections 802 and 804 of the Atlantic Coastal Fisheries Cooperative Management Act, which requires NMFS to develop and implement a program to support the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission in interstate fishery management efforts, including collection, management and analysis of fisheries data.
Section 971i of the Atlantic Tunas Convention Act of 1975 which requires a comprehensive research and monitoring program to support the conservation and management of Atlantic bluefin tuna and other highly migratory species
METHODOLOGY
The basic design for collecting recreational fishing statistics consists of a complemented surveys approach that includes telephone surveys of fishing effort and an access-site intercept survey of angler catch. This basic design is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Traditional complementary surveys approach (fishing modes are independently estimated).

http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/recreational/overview/figures/fig_1.png

The Coastal Household Telephone Survey (CHTS)
The CHTS collects fishing effort data from shore and private boat anglers. Because the majority of shore and private boat fishing trips are taken by individuals who live in coastal areas, the CHTS is limited to households located in coastal counties. Correction factors derived from the intercept survey are used to account for trips taken by non-coastal resident and out-of-state anglers, as well as anglers who live in households without telephones. Data collection occurs during a two-week period at the end of each two-month sample period (or “wave”). In 2006 the survey was conducted for the entire year (January through December or waves 1-6) on the Pacific coast, the Gulf of Mexico coast, the Atlantic coast of Florida, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The survey was conducted for ten months (March through December or waves 2-6) on the Atlantic coast north of Florida, except for Maine and New Hampshire, where it was conducted for six months (May through October or waves 3-5). This regional annual schedule has been maintained since the survey inception in 1979 although not all states, or commonwealths, have been surveyed in all years (see Geographic Coverage section). The CHTS is currently being conducted in the Pacific coast sub-regions (CA, OR, WA) concurrently with Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission-coordinated state surveys to evaluate alternative angler effort methodologies (Pacific RecFIN hyperlink). The CHTS specifically excludes Texas and Alaska, who conduct their own recreational fishing surveys.

The CHTS utilizes a computer-assisted, random digit dialing (RDD) approach to contact full-time residential households. Contacted households are screened to determine if any household members participated in marine recreational fishing during the previous 2 months, and each active angler is asked to recall the number of saltwater fishing trips that were taken during the wave, as well as provide details about each trip. Institutional housing, businesses, wireless phones, and pay phones are excluded from the survey. Within each state, sample is allocated among coastal counties in proportion to household populations. For each coastal county, data from the CHTS are used to estimate the average number of trips per household, which is then expanded by the county household population to estimate total trips. County estimates are summed and then expanded by intercept survey adjustment factors to produce state-level effort estimates. All estimates are computed by fishing mode, then all mode-level estimates are aggregated to obtain the total statewide estimates.

For-Hire Telephone Survey (FHS)
The FHS was developed to resolve undercoverage of Charter and Party boat angler effort by the CHTS. The CHTS does not capture the majority of for-hire angling effort in most states because most anglers who take trips on Charter and Head (or Party) boats do not live in coastal counties. A series of pilot studies to obtain fishing effort information directly from Charter boat operators was conducted in North Carolina and Maine, then throughout the Gulf of Mexico sampling region (Louisiana - West Florida). After several years of testing, the FHS was implemented as the ‘official’ methodology for obtaining Gulf of Mexico Charter boat effort in January, 2000. This FHS design was then pilot tested against a logbook program and the CHTS in South Carolina in 2000 and included Head boats as well as Charter boats. The FHS was implemented for all Atlantic Coast states from Maine through Georgia in January 2005. It overlaps other charter and headboat monitoring programs, including the Northeast (Maine-Virginia) Vessel Trip Reporting Program (VTR), the Southeast Regional Headboat Survey (SERHS), various state logbook programs, and the ongoing CHTS.

The sampling unit for the FHS is not the household but the individual for-hire vessel. The sample frame is constructed from a comprehensive directory of for-hire boats for all states, from Maine through Georgia. The vessel directory consists of a vessel identifier (vessel name or registration number), the name, address and telephone number of an identified vessel representative (captain or owner), as well as a variety of accessory information, such as eligibility, activity, and cooperation status. Sampling is stratified by vessel type (head boat and charter boat), state, and week, within each two-month sampling wave. Currently, vessels are sampled at a rate of 10% within each stratum, with a minimum sample size of 3 vessels. Data collection is conducted on a weekly basis during all weeks within each wave. The weekly dialing is completed during the weekfollowing the specified sample week of fishing. Respondents are asked to report vessel fishing activity for the prior week, and then asked to profile each for-hire fishing trip. Information obtained for each trip includes area fished, number of anglers who fished, hours of actual fishing activity, method of fishing, and target species, if any. Advance notice of selection is mailed to each selected vessel representative and alternative reporting modes are provided for the Atlantic Coast respondents, including an interactive website, a fax number and a phone contact for respondent-initiated interviewing. Effort estimates are produced from the average number of angler-trips per vessel-type per week and the number of vessels per vessel-type in the sampling frame. Adjustment factors for active for-hire fishing boats that are not in the sample frame (new to fleet, no contact information known, etc.) are produced from field intercept survey questions and applied to the raw effort estimate.


**Access-Point Angler Intercept Survey
The access-point angler intercept survey is conducted at public marine fishing access points (boat ramps, piers, beaches, jettys, bridges, marinas, etc.) to collect individual catch data, including species identification, total number of each species, and length and weight measurements of individual fishes, as well as some angler-specific information about the fishing trip and the angler’s fishing behavior.

The interviews are conducted in person by trained field staff, and the sites and dates are selected by a proportional random selection process such that those sites that have the most activity within a sample month will be selected for interview collection most often.

The sampling schedule is independently determined by fishing mode (shore fishers, charter boat fishers, or private or rental boat fishers) and target sample sizes are based on statistical power and available funds. From these angler-interviews a catch per trip estimate (cpue) can be made for each type of fish encountered, either observed or reported. These cpue estimates are combined with the effort estimates by sampling stratum to produce the catch and harvest estimates.

Questions are also asked that provide the information to adjust for non-coastal residents’ effort, fishing activity by anglers living in households without traditional landline telephone service, and charter boat anglers fishing from boats that are not in the FHS sample frame for the wave.

The Large Pelagics Survey (LPS)
The Large Pelagics Survey (LPS) is specifically designed to collect information on recreational fishing directed at large pelagic species (e.g., tunas, billfishes, swordfish, sharks, wahoo, dolphin, and amberjack). Offshore trips targeting large pelagics typically make up a relatively small proportion of all recreational fishing trips. Using this specialized survey design allows for higher levels of sampling large pelagic trips, which ultimately improves estimates of catch and effort for large pelagics. The LPS has been conducted since 1992 from Maine through Virginia. The LPS includes two independent, complementary surveys which provide the effort and average catch per trip estimates needed to estimate total catch by species. The Large Pelagics Intercept Survey (LPIS) is a dockside survey of private and charterboat captains who have just completed fishing trips directed at large pelagic species. This survey is conducted at public fishing access sites that are likely to be used by offshore anglers, and is primarily designed to collect detailed catch data. The Large Pelagics Telephone Survey (LPTS) collects fishing effort information directly from captains holding Highly Migratory Species (HMS) permits (required by NOAA Fisheries to land these species). The LPTS is stratified by permit category: HMS Angling and Atlantic Tunas General permits and HMS Charter/Headboat permits. Data from the phone survey are used to estimate the total number of boat trips on which anglers fished with rod and reel or handline for large pelagic species. The LPS differs from the standard marine recreational fishing surveys mainly in estimating effort and catch by BOAT, rather than by angler. Information on the number of anglers per boat-trip is collected by the LPIS, but the primary unit for all estimates is the boat-trip, or boat-day of fishing. Additional information collected during LPIS and LPTS interviews include target species, tournament participation, fishing method used, fishing location, water depth, and water temperature.


Figure 2. Large Pelagics Survey approach http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/recreational/overview/figures/figure2b_color.jpg
Last Updated: February 12, 2009 http://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/st1/recreational/overview/overview.html

[DarkSkies]

ONE FISH, TWO FISH

Fisheries management is about to get a lot more accurate

By Capt. John McMurray

Fisheries management plans that dictate recreational size and bag limits are based on catch statistics. A sampling program known as the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) was implemented in 1979. The limited data generated from MRFSS are used by managers to gage angling harvest. Because most have never been surveyed or known anyone who has, understandably they question the accuracy. Furthermore, many contend that stock assessments don’t match what anglers see on the water. Lack of confidence in the current system has become particularly heated lately because of what some angling and recreational fishing industry groups perceive to be overly restrictive regulations governing the harvest of important recreational species.

The MRFSS System

Commercial harvest statistics are considered to be reasonably reliable because commercial fishermen are required to report their catch, and do so in something approaching real time. Theoretically, every fish harvested by a commercial operation is counted. Such a system of trying to count every fish in a timely manner is not possible in the recreational fishery because there are just too many anglers. Such a program would be far too expensive to administer and costs would probably exceed the entire NOAA Fisheries budget.

MRFSS employs two different methods to collect data: A “random digit dialing” telephone survey is used to collect data on recreational fishing effort (number of trips), while a shore-side “intercept” survey is used to make estimates of the size and quantity of the catch, including the species encountered and whether fish were released alive. “Intercept” interviews generate catch-per-trip data, which is simply multiplied by effort data from the phone surveys to calculate a rough estimate of the total recreational catch.

MRFSS estimates harvest much as a political poll estimates voters’ preferences. However, it does not, nor was it ever intended to, provide the precise number of fish anglers have caught. MRFSS relies on very limited random sampling and as with any poll, there is quite a bit error associated with the estimate. That error is inversely proportional to the square of the number of intercepts made; that is, to cut the error in half, MRFSS must make four times as many intercepts.

MRFSS was designed to provide a coast-wide estimate of recreational catch, and to provide evidence of trends. It has been effective in doing so. But since 1979, fisheries managers have asked MRFSS to do more than that. MRFSS was not intended to be a quota monitoring tool, nor was it intended to be used at a state by state level, but that’s how it’s now being used, even though the sample size per state is not large enough to provide reliable estimates, and the fact that managers don’t know the results of the survey until four months after it is completed makes effective quota management impossible..

The NRC report

Bill Hogarth, Director of NOAA Fisheries acknowledged MRFSS’ shortcomings, saying “We have long recognized that the program is neither comprehensive nor flawless.” In response to criticism from the angling community, in 2004 NOAA Fisheries commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to evaluate and suggest improvements to MRFSS. Last March, NRC released its findings in a detailed report. **** Brame of Costal Conservation Association noted “To no one’s surprise, NRC found that the MRFSS system was in need of extensive revisions if it were to properly fulfill its current role in fisheries management.”

The Executive Summary of the NRC report includes more than 40 conclusions and recommendations, but at the heart of the report was the recommendation that MRFSS should be completely redesigned.

NRC recommended that a universal “sampling frame" be established through national registration of all saltwater anglers. A mandatory state saltwater license, with no exemptions for age or other reason, would provide a comprehensive list of registered anglers that phone surveyors could contact, eliminating the need for them to make random calls. That simple step would increase the number of angler intercepts and so increase the precision of the survey. “Many of the current challenges with recreational fishing data will be overcome by having a comprehensive database of all saltwater anglers. The database will allow us to regularly check in with anglers to accurately determine catch and fishing effort,” said Hogarth. Unfortunately, attempts to institute a salt water license will not be popular in many states, particularly in the northeast.

NRC also recommended that new analysis procedures based on current sampling theory should be designed and implemented, to account for activities such as nighttime fishing and fishing from boats that land their catch on private property, activities that are not directly addressed in the current survey. While some angling groups criticize MRFSS for overestimating recreational catch, sampling biases probably cause some harvests to be underestimated. For example, many striped bass, particularly the large ones, are landed at night when no surveyors are around. A substantial portion of the weakfish catch is also landed during the dark hours, or early in the morning before surveyors begin. In addition, surveyors don’t access many locations, including shore spots that are not easily accessible from the road.

NRC also recommends that the for-hire sector should be considered part of the commercial sector. Undoubtedly, successful charter and head-boat captains not only catch more fish per day then the average angler, but also sail more often, and so probably account for a greater share of the harvest. The report suggest that the data collection and reporting system used for the for-hire sector should probably be closer to that used for commercial vessel, such as. mandatory reporting, harvest log books etc.

The NRC notes that MRFSS is focused on biological factors and not social and economic factors. Therefore, data regarding fisheries’ human dimensions should be enhanced through an independent national trip and expenditure survey, add-on surveys and an updated national database of marine recreational fishing sites. Furthermore, the report points out that outreach and communication requires improvement. If anglers have confidence in the data, then their willingness to participate in MRFSS will improve.

NRC also states that a permanent and independent research group should be established and funded to continuously evaluate MRFSS’ statistical design and oversee improvements. Methods that were state of the art a generation ago are obsolete today. One can be sure that the dynamics of recreational fishing will continue to change in the future. NRC recommends an ongoing evaluation program to assure that we are not left with an inadequate system again.

The growing popularity of recreational fishing has increased anglers’ impacts on sportfish stocks. While many in the angling community complain that MRFSS currently over-reports recreational catch, Brame correctly notes “we all must remember that error cuts both ways; estimates may be either too high or too low. Thus, when data is in doubt, we must urge fisheries managers to take a precautionary approach, and not try to make decisions that require a level of detail not supported by the available numbers.” Needless to say, the argument being advanced by some—that angling rules can be relaxed, because no one can prove that we’re overfishing any species, must be decisively rejected until MRFSS is fixed, and particular care should be taken to protect the resource in this time of increased uncertainty.

Because of the NRC’s findings, we can expect things to change for the better. Executive Director of the Atlantic States Marine Fisherieis Commission, John O’Shea notes “With a lot more money and increased legislative authority for saltwater fishing licenses and mandatory reporting by for-hire vessels, a better job can be done in accounting for recreational harvests.”

"NRC has provided us with guidance on the way forward with our recreational data collection program" Hogarth said. “You have my commitment to improve the system. It’s time we all roll up our sleeves and fix the MRFSS program so we can all be confident in the data we use to manage recreational fisheries.” According to Hogarth, NOAA fisheries is already considering pilot projects to implement some of the NRC recommendations in the Gulf of Mexico.

For a copy of the Executive Summary of the NRC report on MRFSS log onto http://fermat.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11616.pdf .

[DarkSkies]

Please feel free to make any comments you wish about these surveys as they relate to accuracy the the eventual Saltwater license that faces us. Whether you agree or disagree with my points, these are discussions that benefit us all.

[DarkSkies]

Sent in by Finchaser, thanks!


Recreational Fishing Alliance Contact: Jim Hutchinson, Jr. / 888-564-6732
For Immediate Release February 17, 2010

SCHUMER URGES COMMERCE SECRETARY TO SCRAP MRFSS
NY Senator Calls For "Moratorium On Flawed Survey Data"

February 17, 2010 - U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer (D-NY) called on U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco, and NMFS Administrator Patricia Kurkul to issue an immediate moratorium on the flawed survey data used to implement recreational fishing quotas for the East Coast. In a letter addressed to Kurkul, Sen. Schumer cited the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistical Survey (MRFSS) as being "fatally flawed" and reminded NOAA of their responsibility through the federal Magnuson Stevens Act (MSA) thttp://ih.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102181706823/img/84.jpgo implement changes to the methodology used to gauge the level of recreational landings over the course of a season.

"We need better science and more data-based flexibility in our fishing management regulations," said Schumer. "Keeping our fishing stocks healthy is absolutely critical, and to accomplish this we can't base decisions on outdated science and poor methods. The current system not only falls short of achieving this goal, but it could take the Long Island fishing community down with it in 2010," Schumer said adding that the fishing community "needs fairness and relief from flawed survey data now."

MRFSS uses a combination of dockside interviews and evening telephone surveys to collect recreational harvest information. In 2005, Congress convened a special hearing to look the MRFSS methodology, which in turn led to an in-depth analysis by the National Research Council (NRC) concluding that "both the telephone and access components of the current approach have serious flaws in design or implementation and use inadequate analysis methods that need to be addressed immediately." Pat Sullivan, the NRC committee chair and a Cornell professor, referred to MRFSS specifically as "fatally flawed." The findings led to an MSA mandate that NMFS work on a new survey methodology which was supposed to be online and operational by the start of 2009. Federal delays however have pushed back the start date for MRIP until this year, which means MRFSS data is still regarded as "best available science" for estimating the annual recreational harvest.

Last week, Sen. Schumer asked Kurkul to issue an across-the-board moratorium on this flawed survey data in 2010 so that black sea bass and other species like fluke and porgies are not unfairly shutdown by bad science. "Acknowledging the problems with MRFSS, a new system mandated by the Magnuson-Stevens Act will be coming online in the coming years," the senator wrote, adding "it would be patently unfair to punish anglers by reducing their quota due to erroneous landings estimates produced with a broken system. I request that NMFS dismiss future recreational overages predicted by MRFSS until the new system is fully implemented and calibrated by NOAA."

The Recreational Fishing Alliance recently posted a seven-page paper (Fatally Flawed Science - Killing America's Number One Outdoor Pastime (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103058289069&s=10015&e=001Pu8RFiDUx7FcKfoFTUaiKwjblz773_-jKZtQd6bPzIS_6_nO4b1g8ZQVNeiAyHQGTOmbIinn2vy74InLH uuEFsFVvEKu6f1HlKfzGCHzC9P7bD5-gu67zf1tcXMzjn5hF-xZSDNIvU0=)) pointing out many specific problems with MRFSS and outlining NRC's view that experiential, narrative or local information from the fishing industry, currently considered purely "anecdotal" in nature by NMFS, should actually be considered in harvest methodology. "When no other information is available, anecdotal information may constitute the best information available," the NRC reported in its executive summary, adding "In addition, anecdotal information may be used to help validate other sources of information and identify topics for research."
Schumer's letter on behalf of anglers in the New York marine district can be greatly supported in many coastal states and is backed by a recent study conducted by the
Connecticut Marine Fisheries Division (Correction for Systematic Bias in Recreational Catch, Harvest and Trip Estimates from the MRFSS since the year 2000) which noted a growing discrepancy between the estimated number of saltwater anglers according to MRFSS and the estimates of saltwater anglers from the US Fish and Wildlife Surveys (USFWS) and saltwater licenses sales from several Atlantic coast states. Authored by fisheries assessment expert Dr. Victor Crecco, the report shows that MRFSS' 2008 saltwater angler estimates were often "three to four times higher than both the 2006 USFWS estimates and the 2008 adjusted saltwater license sales," findings which Dr. Crecco said "strongly suggest that the MRFSS has severely overestimated the number of saltwater anglers and fishing trips particularly in recent years, and by extension, has severely inflated the true recreational catch and harvest of all finfish species."
Schumer is urging the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage quotas based on sound data, and has instructed federal fisheries managers to dismiss any future overages estimated by MRFSS in order to restore some stability to coastal fishing communities. "MRFSS has proven to be extremely dangerous on a year to year basis - especially with regard to last year's surprising black sea bass shutdown - and this raises concerns about fully utilizing the meager summer flounder liberalization New York is entitled to in 2010," Sen. Schumer added.

"Fishing is a Long Island tradition that has been passed down for generations and without this relief, the NMFS could potentially stick New York with another year of draconian cuts," Schumer said. "The fishing community has made many sacrifices and stocks are improving so restricting families and others from fishing for them, based on bad data, in 2010 is just plain wrong."
http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102181706823/img/83.jpgThis past Saturday, Sen. Schumer visited the Freeport Recreation Center on Long Island and met with several hundred recreational fishermen at the New York Sportfishing Federation's annual fishing expo. "Fishing is one of our best industries in New York and you've been neglected for too long," Schumer told the crowd of anglers and business owners, stressing the need to fix the Magnuson Stevens Act. Schumer is lead sponsor of Senate Bill 1255, the Flexibility in Rebuilding American Fisheries Act and urged show patrons to join him in a rally on the Capitol on February 24th while calling on "bureaucrats" to immediately fix the data collection system.

"We've got to change the rules here," Schumer said to a loud applause.

To view Sen. Schumer's letter to NOAA,

visitwww.joinrfa.org/Press/SchumerLetter_020910.pdf (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103058289069&s=10015&e=001Pu8RFiDUx7HYhOvkzH9LNrZqwsQSA2eMXLzJCKIOqQLUH I-usit-CK0reXQwohDvWitFlR0ah_NMs8rdvIRHcmf-QIeQwwvPwIfb77cpUIgF6lGfn3yJ4lSnng50nOEzJc31EMc8ee PDTjPpI2FbxlUMoBRBl8js)

[Jackbass]

It would have been nice if he had bought a few raffle tickets, lol. It is nice to see a pol sticking up for fisherman and calling out the regime.