Your take on the 2010 fall surf run for your area?

[DarkSkies]

I posted this under the surf fishing forums because it's sometimes different for surf fishermen as opposed to guys in boats. Anyone who has a boat is welcome to comment as well. All perspectives are valid, and someone may have a way of looking at things that others can learn from.

The reason I'm asking members to concentrate on the surf aspect is that there are some different things I noticed this year for surf fishermen, as opposed to the same time last year. I wanted to see what the opinions of others were as well.







First we'll start with the positives:

1. Overall, as far as striped bass were concerned, anglers in the NJ/NY bight (including LI) area had an exceptional Spring run. This great fishing was enjoyed by surf anglers as well, but the sustained fishing that people remember took place mostly from 1/2-3 miles from the beach when the bunker were here. When they left NJ, the Western shores of LI enjoyed at least a month of great fishing, again, mostly 1/2-3 miles off.

2. This is possible even with reported declining catches from gov't sources because the bass were concentrated around the bunker. There were, in fact, many "dead" areas devoid of bunker, where the fishermen didn't do so well. There were also many large bunker pods that didn't have great numbers of bass or bluefish under them.

3. In years past, severe weather patterns have hampered some fall fishing, and pushed fish offshore or on their Southerly migration earlier than usual.

4. There is now more awareness of C&R fishing. There may not be a lot of folks participating in this, but at least it's out there.

[DarkSkies]

Some of the things I've noticed so far....

(feel free to comment on these or jump in with your own as they relate to your experiences)


People are asking on internet sites - "When will the fall run begin?" I submit it's been in full swing in many areas for weeks now. :eek: :lookhappy:

The extent to which you view the fall migration as being under way depends on the area you live in, your frequency out there fishing, and the amounts of bait that you have seen in your local places you fish.

Again, these are just observations, there is no right or wrong answer here, so don't be afraid to jump in. :HappyWave:


1. Mullet have already left many of the back bay areas. There are still some around, but in past years, for example, there have been schools of hundreds at a time, passing by in the bays and rivers we fish. The guys I know who net mullet for bait say they've moved out of some of the most well-known places early, and onto the Southerly migration.

2. Mullet have been on the move in the surf for at least 2 weeks now. Although this isn't unusual per se, it's a little early. I don't want people to get hung up on or argue about dates here. The mullet run is said by many to center around the moon or a certain date. That's fine, if that's your experience, all good. However, the mullet are also prompted by water temperature. The winds of the last week coupled with the previous weather patterns have dropped ocean temps, mullet are on the move. How many remain in the bay areas IMO are a great indicator of how long an initial surge in fishing opportunities we will have.

3. The peanuts are on the move too, and to me, seem to be less in abundance than years past.
Some of the back bay areas that have always been known to hold peanuts have seen them move out. They sometimes hold in the back bays till Columbus Day, giving us great back bay fishing. I fear that won't be the case this year.

IMO peanuts are one of the basics for a sustained surf fishing menu. Along with the adult bunker now moving S, the peanuts seem to provoke the feeding frenzies "blitzes" many of us drool over. These feeding frenzies are important because bluefish are usually involved first, prompting striped bass to come in after, picking up the easy meals. Without a sustained and regular peanut migration, there is less to hold the fish in the surf zone.

4. Sand eels - not really thick in the surf zone yet.
I know guys are snagging them on the trebles, I know they're here. But they have been offshore all year, way out of reach of surfcasters. Hence, big bluefish, bass, and other predators have had less reason to come into the surf. This usually changes around this time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it does. :drool:

5. Whitebait - we need more variety, and we need it soon.
You might ask how I could say this. Aren't I talking about finding spearing evey time I'm out there? :huh:
Yes, I do find it, but we need more variety. At Montauk it has been in the surf, thick at times, and has caused some nice fish to come in after it. In the LI areas I've fished this year, the bays and coves are filled with different varieties. IN NJ, I've seen mostly spearing.

Whitebait is one of the last bait species to leave the NJ area, before the sand eels. However, I'm hoping that we see more of it in the surf, and it builds even more than it has. Any areas that don't have it may not hold fish.

6. Weather variability -
So far the fall weather patterns haven't been that bad. A W/NW pattern is most favorable for stirring the action up and moving the migration from the bays and rivers to the ocean. I'm hoping that the oncoming fall hurricanes and storms aren't too severe. 1 or 2 bad ones, and the bait and fish will slide offshore. That's not a problem for boaters, but definitely an issue for the surf guys. :burn:







As mentioned, these factors are all variable, and vary further within different states along the E Coast. No opinion is wrong here, and there may be some factors I've left out from this analysis.

So let's hear your thoughts.... :thumbsup: :)

[speedy]

hey bro whats up as far as surfing go s the last storm was a good one with 10 to 11 foot waves its the first time this year the waves have bin that high at 8th ave it was cool :HappyWave::HappyWave::HappyWave::HappyWave:

[DarkSkies]

^^ Hey Bro, did ya go hunting today?
Kill anything for the grill? :drool: :HappyWave:

[fishinmission78]

3. The peanuts are on the move too, and to me, seem to be less in abundance than years past.
Some of the back bay areas that have always been known to hold peanuts have seen them move out. They sometimes hold in the back bays till Columbus Day, giving us great back bay fishing. I fear that won't be the case this year.

IMO peanuts are one of the basics for a sustained surf fishing menu. Along with the adult bunker now moving S, the peanuts seem to provoke the feeding frenzies "blitzes" many of us drool over. These feeding frenzies are important because bluefish are usually involved first, prompting striped bass to come in after, picking up the easy meals. Without a sustained and regular peanut migration, there is less to hold the fish in the surf zone.

4. Sand eels - not really thick in the surf zone yet.
I know guys are snagging them on the trebles, I know they're here. But they have been offshore all year, way out of reach of surfcasters. Hence, big bluefish, bass, and other predators have had less reason to come into the surf. This usually changes around this time. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it does. :drool:

6. Weather variability -
So far the fall weather patterns haven't been that bad. A W/NW pattern is most favorable for stirring the action up and moving the migration from the bays and rivers to the ocean. I'm hoping that the oncoming fall hurricanes and storms aren't too severe. 1 or 2 bad ones, and the bait and fish will slide offshore. That's not a problem for boaters, but definitely an issue for the surf guys. :burn:

So let's hear your thoughts.... :thumbsup: :)


Good points, without the peanuts there will be less insane action. I hope this weather stays stable and we have some great days.

[stripercrazy]

IMO weather is key. Storms will push things along, too many too quick ruins it all.

[nitestrikes]

:thumbsup: Good thread.

Water temperatures have a lot to do with it and will dictate how and when it happens. The thing to remember is back bays cool down quick. Now they are warm, but a few days and niights of windy and sub 50 weather and things will chill, pushing the bait out front and the fish in pursuit. It's already happening at Montauk, and should be a matter of days before things blow up in other areas.

[baitstealer]

It's only a matter of time now. There is another storm coming next week. Hopefully it will get the reason rolling at full speed.

[DarkSkies]

It's only a matter of time now.

Guys and girls, fishing may seem spotty right now, especially when it gets interrupted by a NE storm pattern. That NE pattern fits the geography of Montauk best. Other places further S it sometimes busts the fishin up unless you find a place where the bait is stacked.

Congrats on those who manage to find fish. :thumbsup:

Remember that it isn't a question of when the fall run starts. It already has.

There are bunker and large bass right now off the coast of Cape May, NJ, making the migration S. There are more waves of fish like that every day that will follow adult bunker. If the bunker move offshore, that's simply all the less that we as surfcasters will get into because we can't reach them.

Sure, it may seem a waste of time to go out there when the wind and rain isn't in your favor. :kooky: If you want to increase your odds, wait for the hard W/NW weather patterns and fish those religiously, near the top of the tides. Make it your business to be out there during those times, and minimize your time out there at other times.

Also, pay attention to when the bite is best, day, night, afternoon, pre-dawn, and concentrate on those times. :learn:

Of course, guys who are out there every day will catch more fish because they're tied into the pulse of the migration.

In the end, we can't tell fish when to feed. We can only observe, track yearly data, and try our best guesses as to when they'll be there.



And let's hear some more thoughts on this. I know there are a lot of good surfcasters on this site. Don't be afraid to voice your opinion. :thumbsup:

Just remember that the fish wait for no one....;) :plastered: :fishing:

[porgy75]

Some of the things I've noticed so far....
(feel free to comment on these or jump in with your own as they relate to your experiences)


People are asking on internet sites - "When will the fall run begin?"


I wanted to ask you guys about this, because on other web sites today some guys are saying the fall run has not even begun yet. One guy said the fish are still up north, another said the migration has not even started. So which is it, you are saying it has begun, why do they say it has not?:huh:

Can anyone answer this question?
What I am asking is - is the glass half empty or half full? When can we expect to see more fish? thanks

[jigfreak]

You can't win it if you're not in it. Get out there and fish Porgy. Some nights will be better than others. After awhile you will know when to pack it in early.

[gjb1969]

well i dont see much of one in my neck of the woods big fish here and there nothing consistant i hope it changes soon:rolleyes:

[DarkSkies]

I wanted to ask you guys about this, because on other web sites today some guys are saying the fall run has not even begun yet. One guy said the fish are still up north, another said the migration has not even started. So which is it, you are saying it has begun, why do they say it has not?:huh:

Can anyone answer this question?
What I am asking is - is the glass half empty or half full? When can we expect to see more fish? thanks

Porgy, I don't feel there's a simple answer to this. I didn't see the comments you mentioned and don't want to publically contradict someone else or assume what was in their mind when they made their judgement call.

The only thing I can share with you guys is my experience and opinions. Long ago I realized the value of having the counsel of others more advanced than me, and decided to form relationships with different folks up and down the East Coast. I wanted to see the differences in fishing reports, styles, and outlook. Some of the greatest threads here are where some of our Senior members like Clamchucker, Finchaser, Surfwalker, the OFFC, and others share their perspectives. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

This, people, is golden advice in some of these threads. If I was a new guy to surf fishing I would be sopping it all up like I was eating my last bowl of soup with a stale crust of bread. :learn: ;)

************

Here's some of the things I tend to look at. Some of them were mentioned in previous posts, so I'll try to be brief....

1. Bait migration vs Fish migration - Sometimes these fit nicely together, sometimes not. One indicator of how good the fishing could be from a surf fishing perspective could be how well these 2 mesh. Guys may tend to confuse these terms because of that. For surf fishermen, they are closely tied together to how good the surf action will be.

2. State to state differences - I like to follow the progress of any surf action in different states as one indicator of when things are heating up. Even within a state, as you start to hear of more numbers in areas north or south of you, you can reasonably infer things will start heating up in your area soon. For this reason I like to look at several different states and call my contacts there. I'll try to verify anything that's hearsay, and look for consistency in their catches before I make an assesssment. Just looking at what they're doing at Montauk can be misleading for guys who live in Jersey, as there is a lot of distance between the 2 areas.

Also, from NY to NJ, on different sides of the NY bight. Brooklyn boats have been hammering bass and giant blues for close to 2 months now. If you asked them when the fall run is beginning they would look at you strangely. :huh:
The bass are getting bigger in the past week or so, fish in the 20's, still a nice mix of resident and non-resident fish.

3. Weather patterns - A consistent NE weather pattern, sustained over a few weeks, can alter the migration patterns so much that the fish will migrate offshore. Thus, surf guys will have low numbers while there are thousands of cows and thick bait slightly offshore migrating through the Mudhole. Finchaser has mentioned this countless times..

4. Water temps, moon phase, amount of sunlight, etc - you could lump this in with the weather. Since they're said to be prime indicators of the mullet run, they deserve separate treatment. Patterns form from year to year. When a pattern is different, you should notice a difference in the fishing as well.

5. Resident vs Non-resident fish - some guys use the appearance of "non-resident" fish as an indicator. For NJ, even for those who fished the bridges, this summer had fewer resident fish around than many old-timers can remember.

It's possible that:
a. Many of the resident fish moved elsewhere (Disney and Great Adventure offering summer vacation specials? :laugh:)
b. Many of the "brown" resident bass moved offshore where the bait was more abundant, turning "green" in the process. Do you see where this becomes confusing sometimes, people?
c. There really are fewer bass around, as Finchaser and others have tried to point out to us. I know guys who live 1000 feet from rock jetties and mussel beds. If you ask them about resident fish they would say you're nuts, as there are no bass on them like there used to be.
You can always find bass, ask any scuba diver. But how many are there today, as opposed to 8 years ago? :learn:


6. Fish don't wait for you to come to them - If you have a great night, don't assume tomorrow will be the same. The guys who catch fish most consistently are guys who really study the area they're fishing, and guys who are out there all the time.

Whether there is a NW, NE, calm surf, rough surf, sun, storms, or hail, the fish are definitely on the southward migration right now, and when most of ya's are sleepin, they're still migrating.

There are fish in the 20#'s off Cape May right now as we speak, moving further S. Don't wait too long for the fall run to "start". ;)
As others have said, you can't catch fish in front of a TV. :plastered:
Good luck, all. :thumbsup: :fishing:

[plugginpete]

I have been fishing the Moses area lately. When the weather lets you get out there, there are definitely good numbers of bass and blues. I have been catching some rat bass and bluefish on tins, and every once in awhile a larger one on bunker. So for me it's a good start to the fall run. I think October will be even better.

[clamchucker]

Does anyone remember the fable of the tortoise and the hare?

The sandeels are in the surf zone now. If the weather patterns remain fairly constant, we could have a good fall. One bad storm won't kill it. It will push them so they slide offshore a bit, and then they will return. If we have too many storms back to back, that will take the gravy away from the surf fishermen. I snagged sand eels for the last 2 days. They are a staple for the fall diet, and I hope they are not disturbed by the weather too much.

[basshunter]

I wonder how long it took me to realize that the fish don't wait for you? Must have been years. Sometimes to this day I will get a call about fish being somewhere, but by the time I get there I am always a day late.:eek:

[bluesdude71]

but by the time I get there I am always a day late.:eek:

A day late and a dollar short. Story of my life too.:d Good thread here.

[storminsteve]

A lot of ups and downs for me, mostly downs.:o

[surfstix1963]

It has started as Dark said but fall runs start slow it will get better how long depends on how many back to back storms we get and which way the bait moves out deep or structure providing along the beach,you will have your shots but for this game you need to put all your knowledge and fishing skills to the test and put in a tremendous amount of time you cannot expect to walk on a jetty or beach and have the fish there it just doesn't work like that(well hardly ever) the guys that are catching are not home very much we still have adult bunker,peanuts and small bait all in the rivers it will be awhile but there are fish around nobody said it was fun all the time most of the time it isn't thats fishing.