will it be good night Irene after she passes by?

[seamonkey]

Just wondered what your thoughts were about this hurricane and the path she is taking. Do you think we will get a lot of damage in NJ and it will mess up the fishing for the fall?

[bababooey]

I think it will be a problem in some marinas in South Jersey where the water table is high to begin with. The storm surge is predicted to be intense. Some guys are pulling their boats already.

[plugaholic]

I fish cape may county sometimes and the beaches are so flat there, no structure unless you are near an inlet. I hope it doesn't do much damage but I would be happy if it made a few holes and deeper sandbars here and there.

[captnemo]

Forget about the fishing for awhile. I believe Sunday is the new moon. As the hurricane will be hitting at that time it will push a lot of water into the back bays. When the time comes for the ebb tide the water may not flow out. If this holds till the next tide cycle you will have tremendous amounts of water in the back and could cause some problems as boat moorings will be straining. I agree with bababooey on pulling your boat unless it is in a marina that is very protected from what will be the worst storm conditions in years. Most insurance policies will not cover hurricane damage in the water. They can cover damage sustained on land during a hurricane if you can show that you were making best efforts to keep your boat safe.

After the hurricane passes, the forecast W winds will blow out all the dead grass and crap in the bay that has been sitting ther all year and for years in some places. There will be a lot of flotsam in the water, and it will be ugly. That first tide after all the accumulation will be a blow out, raging rapids kind of tide. If you have anything near the water, secure it as best you can.

[finchaser]

Bye Bye beaches looks like mega damage on it's present coarse,especially Brigintine,AC, LBI and Island beach. Same for Long Island. Projected storm surge is 10 to 15 feet which would be highest ever recorded in NJ

From the internet today

Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193804.asp) roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm. Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states. I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm), which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. (http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp) If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone. Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.

[hookset]

Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/risk/index.shtml?gm), which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's



Wow some scary stuff finchaser, thanks for posting.And nemo thanks for the advice as well. Here is the latest I found.



Fri
SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri Night
Se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat
Se winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming E 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning...then showers and scattered tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm... decreasing to 1 nm or less in the afternoon.
Sat Night
E winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt... becoming NE 55 to 75 kt with gusts up to 90 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft...building to 12 to 17 ft after midnight. Scattered tstms. Showers in the evening...then periods of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun
NW winds 60 to 80 kt...diminishing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft...subsiding to 4 to 7 ft. Periods of rain and scattered tstms through the day...then a chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less... increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the evening.



Storm surge predictions
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm

NOAA storm graphics
14056



wundergrounds latest update
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1899

[finchaser]

Could be really ugly Manasquan was under water tonight with just the moon tide.Asbury and other towns have mandatory evacuation by 12 PM Saturday even heard the parkway south from AC to Cape May will shut down Saturday at noon.Stores here are out of food and water,it's unreal and only Thursday.