Don't believe YOY Bullsh_t

[finchaser]

Stripers Forever members -



The Maryland Department of Natural Resources recently announced that the 2011 Young of the Year (YOY) Striped Bass Survey is 34.6, the fourth highest measure of striped bass spawning success in the Chesapeake Bay in the survey’s 58-year history. This is also the first really successful year class since 2003, and it comes at a time when most signs have indicated the fishery was in real trouble.



This is certainly a positive development for striped bass, and while this boost to the population is something to look forward to, it is also important to consider these points:
<LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN-TOP: 10px">The number of small fish along much of the coast is at critically low levels. It will take 4 years for the 2011 year class to grow to 18 inches, the minimum legal-sized fish to catch, and only then in Chesapeake Bay. Fishing for all but the big fish highliners will continue to decline until that time. There are some very lean years ahead. <LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN-TOP: 10px">It will be 8 years before this year class will be 28 inches long and legally available to the coastal fishery. Long before then all but a few remnants of the 2003 year class, which provides most of the current coastal catch, will have died of old age. Current coastal commercial quotas and recreational harvest are clearly excessive considering the gap that exists between the 2003 and 2011 year classes. <LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN-TOP: 10px">By the time the 2011 fish reach 18 inches, they will be virtually the only stripers left to harvest in both the recreational and commercial fisheries of Chesapeake Bay. Without a large decrease in fishing mortality, this year class will be severely depleted before it can grow to the normal coastal keeper size of 28 inches. Because these fish would then be virtually the only legal coastal size available, current bag limits and quotas would quickly deplete them.
<LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left">An additional concern is that no one knows for certain to what extent mycobacteriosis, a disease thought to be fatal to striped bass and wide spread in Chesapeake Bay, will prematurely reduce the abundance of the 2011 year class. Some biologists feel that mycobacteriosis is substantially elevating striped bass mortality; perhaps well beyond the levels used by fishery scientists to calculate future population levels. <LI style="TEXT-ALIGN: left; MARGIN-TOP: 10px">One good game does not a season make. This spawning spike may prove to be just an aberration in a downward trend. It would be a foolish risk to defer conservation measures based on a single successful spawning year that may never reach fruition, and that certainly won’t meaningfully replenish the coastal stock for nearly 8 years.
The real socio-economic value of striped bass is in the recreational fishery. Due to the decline in the quality of fishing, caused at least in part by current harvest levels, guides have lost their jobs, tackle shops are closing, and we are seeing an overall decline in recreational fishing activity. Fishing mortality levels must be reduced now to preserve the current adult population and maintain recreational fishing economic output.


The Atlantic States Marine Fishery Commission, responsible for striped bass management, will be meeting on Nov. 8 in Boston to decide if a plan to reduce current harvest levels of striped bass fishing mortality should be developed and sent to public hearing. Some states, especially those with commercial fisheries, will see this year’s Young of the Year survey as a solid excuse not to reduce fishing mortality on striped bass. Look for a follow up e-mail from Stripers Forever in a few days requesting that you contact your state ASMFC delegation, and providing you with all the contact information.

Brad Burns Pres. Stripers Forever

[Monty]

Thanks Finchaser. I hope this deveplopment does not give a false sense that the Striper population is good. The point about not being small fish around is huge and very true.

[DarkSkies]

Thanks Finchaser. I hope this deveplopment does not give a false sense that the Striper population is good. The point about not being small fish around is huge and very true.

Completely agree, Monty, thanks for your input.







This is also the first really successful year class since 2003, and it comes at a time when most signs have indicated the fishery was in real trouble

This is certainly a positive development for striped bass, and while this boost to the population is something to look forward to, it is also important to consider these points:

1.The number of small fish along much of the coast is at critically low levels. It will take 4 years for the 2011 year class to grow to 18 inches, the minimum legal-sized fish to catch, and only then in Chesapeake Bay. Fishing for all but the big fish highliners will continue to decline until that time. There are some very lean years ahead.

2.It will be 8 years before this year class will be 28 inches long and legally available to the coastal fishery. Long before then all but a few remnants of the 2003 year class, which provides most of the current coastal catch, will have died of old age. Current coastal commercial quotas and recreational harvest are clearly excessive considering the gap that exists between the 2003 and 2011 year classes.

3. By the time the 2011 fish reach 18 inches, they will be virtually the only stripers left to harvest in both the recreational and commercial fisheries of Chesapeake Bay. Without a large decrease in fishing mortality, this year class will be severely depleted before it can grow to the normal coastal keeper size of 28 inches. Because these fish would then be virtually the only legal coastal size available, current bag limits and quotas would quickly deplete them.


One good game does not a season make. This spawning spike may prove to be just an aberration in a downward trend. It would be a foolish risk to defer conservation measures based on a single successful spawning year that may never reach fruition, and that certainly won’t meaningfully replenish the coastal stock for nearly 8 years

The real socio-economic value of striped bass is in the recreational fishery. Due to the decline in the quality of fishing, caused at least in part by current harvest levels, guides have lost their jobs, tackle shops are closing, and we are seeing an overall decline in recreational fishing activity. Fishing mortality levels must be reduced now to preserve the current adult population and maintain recreational fishing economic output.

Some states, especially those with commercial fisheries, will see this year’s Young of the Year survey as a solid excuse not to reduce fishing mortality on striped bass.




Thanks for posting this, Fin.

I think they covered all the points and possibilities well here. I read the YOY stats about a week ago, and was wondering how this positive news would cause people to react.

I think the points they laid out are accurate and logically follow the current state of the fishery.
In curent times we have to be aware how the message comes out. If it comes across as "preaching" people will not want to hear it. I don't like when it appears people are preaching to me either, so I try to be careful whenever I'm talking about the decline.



But decline it is....
There are still fish in the middle of the bowl of M&Ms, but declining numbers on the edges. As one who fishes a lot, I see that with my own eyes.....I know a lot here who have seen it too, and our passion for these fish is the driving force in our conservation.

The challenge is to get others to see it, as well. http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/images/icons/icon3.png

[Shaky]

I think the title of the post is misleading.

From the maryland DNR


INTRODUCTION: The juvenile striped bass survey documents annual year-class success for young-of-the-year (YOY) striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and relative abundance of many other fish species in Chesapeake Bay. Over 100 fish species have been collected since 1954. Annual indices of relative abundance provide an early indicator of future adult stock recruitment and document annual variation and long-term trends in abundance and distribution.

Are you saying the numbers are BS? Annual indices of relative abundance provide an early indicator of future adult stock recruitment and document annual variation and long-term trends in abundance and distribution. I don't see anything in this statement that says we're saved.

Here's a graph of the annual yoy reports. I'm no marine biologist and i don't pretend to be. It does seem to be a fair indicator of the number of fish in different size classes that I catch form the beach.

What the graph doesn't show is the reason for success or lack thereof. I believe there are things that are just not within our control. Water temps, air temps, rainfall, salinity, water movement, success of forage species, pollution levels etc.

I suppose when everything aligns properly you have a successful yoy. When it doesn't it's a bust. Some of these things are just not within our control, some are. If the stocks are in as bad a shape as the sporties say, how is it that they managed to have great spawning success this year. Why did they not have greater success the year before when there were more big fish. 2002, 2004 2006 were below average recruitment years. Can you explain why?

How many fish are really needed for a successful YOY?


14318


Sure I'd love to see them make it a game fish, my reasons being purely selfish. Right now i think the system is broken, but certainly not irreparable. I don't have the answers.

As far as you closing statements I'm sure there are some recs who will do likewise.

[vpass]

I got this for Maryland Dept. of Natural Resource Web page.

2011 Young of the Year Striped Bass Survey Shows Fourth Highest Reproduction On Record
10/18/2011 | Posted by jdavidsburg
Tags: Commercial, Recreational

The Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) today announced that the 2011 Young of the Year (YOY) Striped Bass Survey is 34.6, well above the long-term average of 11.9, and exceedingly higher than 2010’s results of 5.9. This is the fourth highest measure of striped bass spawning success in the Chesapeake Bay in the survey’s 58-year history.
“This reinforces our understanding that when conditions are right, the striped bass population is capable of producing robust year classes of young rockfish,” said DNR Fisheries Service Director Tom O’Connell.
The survey also documented an increase in the abundance of juvenile blueback herring- a population that had previously decreased dramatically in the Chesapeake Bay and along the coast. White perch, another important food and sportfish species, saw near record reproduction.
During this year’s survey, DNR biologists counted more than 59,000 fish of 47 different species while collecting 4,565 YOY striped bass. Variation in annual spawning success is normal because striped bass reproduction is influenced by many factors including water temperature, winter snowfall, spring flow rates, and prevailing weather conditions. Typically, several years of average reproduction are intermixed with the occasional large and small year-classes. The strong 2011 year-class shows that the spawning stock is capable of producing a large year-class when conditions are favorable.
“We are extremely pleased to see this year’s results,” said DNR Biologist Eric Durell. “It is interesting to note that the four largest year classes on record have occurred since the moratorium was lifted in 1990.”
DNR biologists have monitored the reproductive success of striped bass and other species in Maryland’s portion of the Chesapeake Bay annually since 1954. Twenty-two survey sites are located in the four major spawning systems: Choptank, Potomac, and Nanticoke rivers, and the Upper Bay. Biologists visit each site monthly from July through September, collecting fish samples with two sweeps of a 100-foot beach seine.
Juvenile indices are calculated as the average catch of YOY fish per sample. For more information about the YOY striped bass survey go to

www.dnr.maryland.gov/fisheries/juvindex



It's good news, hopefully this doesn't give them a reason to continue the slaughter. This fish is worth more as a gamefish.

[finchaser]

No not BS but false hope by time these fish are 28' and big enough to keep spawn and keep it will be 8 years. The alarming rate of decline in 2002 year class won't last 8 years with all the pressure. Also Maryland is trying to increase commercial fishery by saying this proves it is a sustainable fishery which in government terms means they need minimal or no protection. I should have titled it different but it got attention to make people aware the slaughter can't continue as the recreational catch is down 66% in the last 4 years and declining quickly .This index is false hope the fishery is going down hill quick read Bababooey's post Montauk thread. Also rumor had it they seined in other areas and added it to this.

[DarkSkies]

Thanks for posting this, Fin.

I think the points they laid out are accurate and logically follow the current state of the fishery.
If it comes across as "preaching" people will not want to hear it. I don't like when it appears people are preaching to me either, so I try to be careful whenever I'm talking about the decline.

But decline it is....
There are still fish in the middle of the bowl of M&Ms, but declining numbers on the edges. As one who fishes a lot, I see that with my own eyes.....I know a lot here who have seen it too, and our passion for these fish is the driving force in our conservation.

The challenge is to get others to see it, as well. http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/images/icons/icon3.png




This is also the first really successful year class since 2003, and it comes at a time when most signs have indicated the fishery was in real trouble

This is certainly a positive development for striped bass, and while this boost to the population is something to look forward to, it is also important to consider these points:

2.It will be 8 years before this year class will be 28 inches long and legally available to the coastal fishery. Long before then all but a few remnants of the 2003 year class, which provides most of the current coastal catch, will have died of old age. Current coastal commercial quotas and recreational harvest are clearly excessive considering the gap that exists between the 2003 and 2011 year classes.

Some states, especially those with commercial fisheries, will see this year’s Young of the Year survey as a solid excuse not to reduce fishing mortality on striped bass.







Guys, thanks for the responses on this. I realize everyone who posts in this thread cares abouit striped bass, every single one of ya's.
Although we may not agree on all the points, I feel the point I highlighted above is one of the key ones I wish people would realize. One year does not a fishery make. The fishing at Montauk is the worst it has been in years. Fish are in the rips and block, but the existence of those fish does not "prove" that the numbers are healthy.

Over and over again, it's been drummed into my head that the fish on the edges, beaches, sedges, rivers, and points, are a better indication of the health of the fishery because those are the fish that make up the variation in the statistical spread as it's calculated.

Can you really count 36 million fish?
Absolutely not.

As RJ correctly points out, there has to be some accepted statistical method of assessing the size of the biomass. We have to accept some standards.

i agree, but feel with all of the evidence we have before us, the system of assessing the numbers of these fish is flawed. I would go as far to say that I feel it's broken, but some would argue with that.....

And I'm not looking to argue here, just to understand...

Why veteran anglers who fish 5 daya or nights a week can't seem to connect with the fish like they used to...

Why the best of the best in the fishing clubs in NJ and LI have not been able to consistently catch fish at Montauk this fall, even on the night shift?

Why the average size of striped bass reported by Montauk and other adjacent area Capts has been declining... Please... I know about the biigger bass, I read the reports obsessively...but the average size is declining..with the exception of the last few weeks, many charter trips have returned with bass in the teens and low 20's..if these are the only fish they were catching, where are the bigger fish?

Why, with barely 6 weeks left in the fall 2011 fishing season, are we still waiting for the Montauk "fall run" to show some life?






There are too many variables that are melting down to dismal reports this fall.
I'm hoping that folks out there are paying attention....

Some of the early trailblazers and conservationists like the OFFC have bowed out of the politics as they felt it was too tiresome to keep explaining this over and over again.


Finchaser only has limited energy to keep his "rants" up. ;) Someday soon, he may give up the fight as sometime it feels like there are too many conflicting theories out there......All we know is, with or without science to support it, we are collectively catching less fish, and working harder to catch the ones we do....



.if this doesn't give anyone reason to think about, then don't claim you tried to help when there are even less bass to catch as we wait the 8 years for this 2010 class to mature....

[DarkSkies]

Sent in by Finchaser, thanks.


Comments by others
"BS!!!! The fishery is declining, why are so many people not seeing large numbers of fish anymore? This is coming from credible sources. And this season has been the worst for lots of striper fishermen. You guys that think the fishery is in good shape are delusional."

"complete BS on any notion that the population is fine and in fact, thriving. Of course the report itself (that reported the YOY numbers) isn't stating anything about the current condition of the striped bass population...so a lot of these posts insinuating such is simply misinterpretations or perhaps even a few folks ignoring elephants in the room"

[cowherder]

I don't have the experience a lot of you guys do, but I do know that once I started to finally learn to catch fish 2 years ago, when it seemed like there were more fish,it has become a lot harder. I'm like 0 for 10 percentage wise in terms of all the trips I have fished this year and caught bass on. I don't always report the skunks because it is a little embarassing.

[RJC]

I think the title of the post is misleading.

From the maryland DNR



Are you saying the numbers are BS? Annual indices of relative abundance provide an early indicator of future adult stock recruitment and document annual variation and long-term trends in abundance and distribution. I don't see anything in this statement that says we're saved.

Here's a graph of the annual yoy reports. I'm no marine biologist and i don't pretend to be. It does seem to be a fair indicator of the number of fish in different size classes that I catch form the beach.

What the graph doesn't show is the reason for success or lack thereof. I believe there are things that are just not within our control. Water temps, air temps, rainfall, salinity, water movement, success of forage species, pollution levels etc.

I suppose when everything aligns properly you have a successful yoy. When it doesn't it's a bust. Some of these things are just not within our control, some are. If the stocks are in as bad a shape as the sporties say, how is it that they managed to have great spawning success this year. Why did they not have greater success the year before when there were more big fish. 2002, 2004 2006 were below average recruitment years. Can you explain why?

How many fish are really needed for a successful YOY?


14318


Sure I'd love to see them make it a game fish, my reasons being purely selfish. Right now i think the system is broken, but certainly not irreparable. I don't have the answers.

As far as you closing statements I'm sure there are some recs who will do likewise.


Shakey,
Your graph is for Juvenile striped bass and not Young of the Year (YOY) striped bass..
and it ends in 2006.

Look up YOY and get the Bay-wide graph. MD covers the upper portion of the Chesapeake Bay and VA the southern portion. It is the combined numbers that show the true picture for the health of the entire bay. Juvinile bass are 5 years and under.


PS I guess md refers to their YOY seine net haul chart as the Juvinile SB Chart.

The most up to date MD chart available can be found at dnr.maryland.gov.fisheries/juvindex/amweb.xls. It
shows the 2011 findings.

All I can find for VA the the damm press release. No comparible chart like the Maryland one.
The title is STRIPED BASS YOY
Bay-wide Geometric Mean Catch per Haul #### Maryland publishes the chart in two formats. My comments were based on the Geometric figures. Please disregard my earlier comments.

The Bay-wide Arithmetic Mean Catch per Haul chart is the one with the correct fish per net haul figures.

2011 shows 34.58 fish per net haul the last ten year averag is 13 fish per haul. Very close to the Hudson River productivity average of 14 fish per net haul.