PDA

View Full Version : Epic Fall Run?



strikezone31
12-15-2011, 11:58 AM
Interesting read by John Skinner. I totally agree. LI surf fishing sucked this season.





December 07, 2011
Epic Fall Run!
by John Skinner

Wow, some fall run, huh? For many, it might as well have ended on the October 29th Nor'easter that brought snow to western Long Island and stinging sleet to the East End. To make matters worse, the fishing wasn't exactly red hot prior to the storm either.

October had its moments, but almost all of the good action took place in the dark near the inlets. The North Shore? It's incredible to be out on the North Fork in a strong onshore wind in October or early November and not see any gulls working.

Up until a few years ago there were clouds of birds in the sky, and some anglers complained that the plentiful bluefish made it hard to get at the bass. Two years ago I landed 74 albies from the beach on the North Shore. I thought 2010 was bad because I landed only 26. In 2011 I had a total of three hits and never landed a single one – and I tried hard. So what's going on? I don't claim to know, but I have some ideas. Let's start with the bass.

As the fall passed us by and the beaches remained quiet until the season's clock began running out, many began to sound alarms that the striper stocks are in serious trouble. "There's no fish. Something needs to be done!" Statements to that effect. How short our memories are. Last year we saw days when the fish schools stretched from the shore to miles out and as far as you could see east and west. There was an exceptionally calm late October 2010 day when I took my kayak out about a mile off the beach to play with the fish schools. There were times on that trip when I felt as though the ocean was filled with bass. Not only were there fish under the birds, my fishfinder kept lighting up in areas where nothing was showing. When I'd drop a diamond jig on these big blotches it couldn't even get to the bottom. When I mentioned this to a frustrated angler on the beach this fall the response was "The netters caught them all down south last winter." I doubt it.

If you fished the New Jersey beaches this November, it's doubtful you perceived any shortage of bass. What we had in the fall of 2010, they had in the fall of 2011. So did all of the fish just bypass us at the end of October? Certainly not from the perspective of Rhode Island surf anglers who enjoyed a phenomenal run of bass and blues feeding on herring in mid- to late-November.

It's all about perception. If you're where the fish are, they can seem to be in great abundance, if you're where they're not, they can seem extinct. The fish simply took a deep route past Long Island this fall resulting in about the most dismal fall run anyone can remember. I heard numerous stories of netters doing very well in about 90 feet of water while the anglers on the beaches starved. A friend who was fishing 180 feet of water more than 20 miles off the beach in early November reported catching numerous 5-pound blues on clams on the bottom. Those were the fish that should have been driving bait into the wash. Which brings up the next item – baitfish.

This fall, Jersey got the sandeels that Long Island had in 2009 and 2010, and those were the baitfish that fueled most of the November fishing all three years. Peanut bunker? The last time I saw decent schools on the North Shore was 2007, and even those didn't fuel the type of fall fishing they usually did because there just didn't seem to be enough bluefish around to drive them.

I've always felt that bluefish are important to beach fishing because the bass are often just not aggressive enough to drive the bait to the shore. Bass do fine without chasing bait schools because they eat just about everything and do a good job of staying fed on crabs, porgies, fluke, flounder, lizard fish, and so forth.

So there's no peanut bunker, the sandeels went south, the herring were north, and we were stuck in the middle out of casting range of the migration route. There's one other thing I want to throw out there – Hurricane Irene and her effect on water quality. As we all saw on the news, Irene caused flooding of historic proportions in upstate NY and Connecticut.

The Hudson River and rivers on the Connecticut side of the Sound dumped a tremendous amount of freshwater and silt into our coastal waters. The Sound was brown and full of debris for weeks after the storm, and the water never cleared completely until early November. I'm convinced this hurt the Sound's false albacore run, and suspect it had other negative impacts on our fishery as well.

Make no mistake; my impression is that stripers are nowhere near as abundant as they were 10 to 15 years ago. I found it much easier back then to put up good numbers every night as compared to the last several years.
What bothers me about this is that I know I've learned a few things since then that should have increased my numbers. I often think, "If I knew then what I know now…" My same impression applies to bluefish. There's no way that I think they're as plentiful now as 10 to 15 years ago. But now I'm falling into the trap that I alluded to earlier – judging the stock from my experience in a relatively limited area.

While some may debate its accuracy, the most comprehensive data we have comes from the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) stock assessments. When I look at the abundance plots of both striped bass and bluefish my honest reaction is "I suck". I must be old, stupid, and/or lazy. For me, the very best years were between 1997 and 2001. When I look at the abundance plot for striped bass older than 8 years (around 15 pounds) it shows greater abundance these last few years than in the period around 2000.

Even more surprising for me is that it shows the bluefish abundance as about 40% higher than that earlier period. I'm not lazy. I have logs that show I'm not fishing any less. Of course I'm older, but smarter. The stock assessments simply don't correlate with my observations. In talking to other Long Island anglers, I don't know any who think there are more fish now than a decade ago.

How could this be? One possibility is that the assessments are or were inaccurate. There's no way for me to know that. The other possibility is simply distribution. Just like Jersey surfcasters had a banner November while Long Island surfcasters starved, quality stripers are being caught with ease in places other than where they were caught 10 to 15 years ago.

If you troll the fishing Internet message boards, you'll see occasional evidence of this from boat anglers up north who report unprecedented catches of big bass in waters where they never had them before. It leaves open the possibility that there are indeed a lot of fish, just not where most of us are fishing. Hopefully 2012 will bring us much improved fishing that will make us forget about the dismal fall run of 2011.

http://files2.allcoastmedia.com/images/bass2k11-cr1r.jpg
http://files2.allcoastmedia.com/images/blues2k11-crr.jpg
http://files2.allcoastmedia.com/images/38ppr.jpg
A 38-pounder that found my pencil popper during the late October Nor'easter.

baitstealer
12-15-2011, 05:52 PM
Nice read, strikezone, thanks for sharing.

fishinmission78
12-16-2011, 06:29 AM
Peanut bunker? The last time I saw decent schools on the North Shore was 2007, and even those didn't fuel the type of fall fishing they usually did because there just didn't seem to be enough bluefish around to drive them.

I've always felt that bluefish are important to beach fishing because the bass are often just not aggressive enough to drive the bait to the shore. Bass do fine without chasing bait schools because they eat just about everything and do a good job of staying fed on crabs, porgies, fluke, flounder, lizard fish, and so forth.



Good point, I haven't seen a good solid peanut bunker run in at least 3 years. The mullet run was good this year but we definitely got short-changed on the peanuts. Interesting to see guys in NY are saying the same thing. And we had bunker around for most of the year, where the hell are the peanuts then?

skinner
12-16-2011, 12:03 PM
I loved when the peanut bunker were in close and savagely destroyed by the bass and blues. Really miss that.

DarkSkies
11-10-2013, 02:56 PM
The Great South Shore Striper bite of 2013.......

I'm putting this out there, for those who see 500 bass caught one day, and may start to make extrapolations about the bass biomass because of that good bite. It was a good bite for quite a lot of people I know....my goal here is to be as accurate as possible in reporting it for reviewing in later years, and also to include it in the StripersandAnglers yearly coastwide fish stock assessment (http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/showthread.php?7784-StripersandAnglers-yearly-coastwide-fish-stock-assessment-state-of-the-fishery&highlight=striped+bass+stock+assessment)

I try to put together every year, based on interviews with hundreds of fishermen.
http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/showthread.php?7784-StripersandAnglers-yearly-coastwide-fish-stock-assessment-state-of-the-fishery





Montauk Surf
It can be stated that the overall Montauk surf bite was poor this year, relative to years in the past.

1. Although that surf bite was almost non-existent, except for the Montauk regulars who were out eeling and plugging a few big fish at night, it seems that the fishing did turn on around Oct 8th.
Despite the grumblings of poor surf fishing, a friend there on a 3 day trip started catching larger bass consistently at night, around Oct 8. This was because of the sand eels that were moving into the surf, previously further out in the rips and South Side inshore areas.

2. After that date, these sand eels spurred a sporadic day bite, and somewhat consistent night bite.

3. This bite historicaly starts at Montauk, around the first fall noreaster, or the first week of Sept. (Although this pattern has not held for the past few years, looking back on historical data and logs, it holds true over large blocks of time.)

4. Striped bass season contraction....when there are less fish the season will seem less robust and be noticably shorter. That action which previously started in Sept, has been pushed back till October, and almost November......
This to me is one possible indication of the contraction of the total striped bass biomass....when you look at it in a historical perspective.....

DarkSkies
11-10-2013, 03:10 PM
South Shore, Surf and Inshore Bite...Oct 2013....



Overview...
If you review the fishing reports for that time line (before Oct 14), there were many Capts and surfcasters grumbling online about lack of fish, or where they could be...the bait - sand eels, rainfish, butterfish, and some herring, were starting to school up,, plenty of food for any migrating bass to find....

However, most of the message boards and Captains reports reporting fish activity, were quiet until around the 3rd week of Oct, around Oct 14....

From then on it grew steadily better.....
with some newer fishermen calling it the best bite ever....


What some didn't realize is that in past years, with some exceptions, the historical pattern is the area between Moriches and Fire Island can and does hold a great deal of migrating fish. The bottom structure is favorable to that. As a result the bass have sometimes held, for up to 2 months at a time, in that general area.

In the beginning, the bass were highly concentrated.
For example, while Captree and Moriches boats had fast access to these fish, boats were coming from all over, from Montauk (where the action was still relatively spotty at that point) to NJ, ( Golden Eagle eventually made several 59 mile trips to get in on these fish).












**Some have commented that the whole South shore lit up around this time. A statement like that is highly inaccurate. Here's why:

1. Surf fishermen initially had no action.., The bass were concentrated 1-7 miles offshore and for a while this body did not move.

2. Boats making 30-60 mile runs from other ports, tells you that there was not much going on on the rest of the South Shore, other than this highly concentrated mass of (mostly bass) and bluefish.......

3. I talked about this with a few of our LI old salts...they agree that the whole extent of this initial action, covered from 15-20% of LI's whole coastline. Much of the rest of that area was a dead sea for striped bass opportunities.

The main forage for these migrational fish were the sand eels. Although they were in the surf line as well, the highest concentrations of bass remained mostly available to boats.

DarkSkies
11-10-2013, 03:26 PM
The Surf part, and Migrational Movement.....


**What some folks may not realize is that even though these bass were highly concentrated, they are always on the move as they are genetically wired to migrate at specific times each year. This migration may be delayed as they stop somewhere and feed heavily. Eventually they are so fat and full they move on, replaced by other migrators.

As striped bass move on their migration, there are several opinions on how far they can move/day...but 10-15 miles/day is a median figure, and pretty fair and reasonable IMO.
Therefore, what some may not realize is that this "main body" was more accurately a concentrated mass of feeding fish....with large subsets of new fish cycling in and out of it, every day, moving up or down the coast.....these are the fish that others on the migrational trail,.....NY Bight area, Shrewsbury Rocks, Barnegat, and Cape May fishermen, began to see.

Somewhat later, around the 3rd week of Oct into November, is when the SS surf fishermen got into more regular fishing....
I'm sure some will describe it as "EPiC". I know the bite because quite a few of my friends and old salts I know fished it regularly...they did well......

However, I would answer, when asked about the magnitude of this bite to the Surf fishermen, that the Demo area bite of 2010 was much more robust, significant, and sustained.








**There were also bites in the Breezy Point to Montauk area within 8 years prior to that that were more robust and contained bigger fish.

Part of my success in life is analyzing trends and patterns. This is based on time on the water and the feedback from hundreds of veteran anglers.
I want to put it out there that although this is only my opinion, it is backed by data and observations from hundreds.
We have definitely been seeing a downward trend in fish that come to the surf for the last 8 years. This is despite an abundance of bait and good fishing conditions (remove Sandy from the equation as an aberration).


Thanks for reading.
Feel free to post any opinions, especially if they are something I didn't addess here. Would love to hear what others think. :HappyWave: :fishing:

crosseyedbass
11-10-2013, 04:04 PM
I think the fall run is winding up here. Fished this morning in a spot that was giving up some nice bass. Only 1 rat for me.
heres a report someone posted yesterday. Still some fish seems the numbers are fading away-

"Hundreds of guys spread out in all directions. Only saw 1 other fish caught amongst the hundred or so guys fishing. They were all throwing big tins with green tubes way out. we fished smaller tins with a yellow tube and soft plastic sand eel imitations slow and low close in. The water was clean and relatively calm although the wind picked up late. All fish caught within 20 yards of the beach. We each brought home a keeper of about 32 inches."

storminsteve
11-10-2013, 04:56 PM
Thank you for taking the time to post the analysis ds. I like skinner's thoughts as well. He posts facts and figures to back it up. I think it's also good that he states that he and a bunch of his peers are catching different from what the officials are claiming. Who is going to agree with me that there must have been some back room political payoffs here?

Monty
11-10-2013, 05:39 PM
Thank you for taking the time to post the analysis ds. I like skinner's thoughts as well. He posts facts and figures to back it up. I think it's also good that he states that he and a bunch of his peers are catching different from what the officials are claiming. Who is going to agree with me that there must have been some back room political payoffs here?

I agree with you, corruption.

buckethead
11-10-2013, 07:14 PM
Good points rich. Any fishermen who could read the points made by skinner or ds and say all the rhetoric about healthy striped bass is a total fabrication - is not dealing with a full deck. I just spent 5 days of fishing to catch a few bass to 14#. Never has it been so spotty since the late 70's and early 80's for me.


I agree with you, corruption.
X2. Someones pockets are getting greased. It is a lot easier to do this nowadays. You can buy season theatre tickets for someone on the ASMFC board. If one of the politicians just post a lot of $100 campaign contributions to them during election. Barely noticable and goes on all the time.
Buy them a vacation, plane tickets. Even give them gift cards in $500 increments. Pay the lease on a car they drive. Very difficult to trace these things.

surfstix1963
11-11-2013, 02:51 AM
I'm done packed up and washed everything off I've been fishing the SS of L.I. for about 30 years and this is my personal opinion only, this was the WORST year in the surf granted I have not fished in 4 years and may be a tad rusty but the friends I have spoken with all told me the same thing you didn't miss much in 4 years.These fish need a break or they are done. I've never stopped fishing this early Thanksgiving Day was my usual cutoff, when the smaller fish come in I don't see a need to be sticking them and injuring them just for the sake of catching a fish and this is happening 3 weeks early this year at this time the SS should be cranking instead it is slowing to a halt.7 years ago I had more fish in one day then this entire season.Some people say it was great in October I just laughed and said you have no idea what great is or was for that matter.Back to plugs and teasers I guess.I hope NJ does better but my intuition tells me NOT...This fishery is in bad shape,managed by idiots with degrees and will not get better unless they shut it down again........

BassBuddah
11-11-2013, 10:58 AM
^^^ You didn't miss much in 4 years surfstix. This has been a poor year for me as well Picked up a few bass this weekend at mecca but it has slowed down to slower than a slow pick. Used to be you could be out at montauk around labor day and the night fishing was solid. 20-30 lb fish were the norm not the celebrated exception they are today. My opinion there was a pretty good SS bite for late october. A lot of the folks who are raving about how fantastic it is did not get to fish much because of sandy last year and we all know that 2011 was very poor. Compared to those years fishing was great this fall. What has happened is folks don't remember the great fishing because their minds forget. Therefore the fishing we had this fall becomes "the greatest fall that ever was".

porgy75
11-12-2013, 01:14 AM
whatever happened to all those stripers that were supposed to be coming down the coast from Rhode Island and Mass?

surfstix1963
11-22-2013, 11:28 AM
The bulk of the fish were in 60-70 ft. of water in NY because of all the sandeels out there the boats did well.There are always decent fish on the beach just not in great numbers anymore that's why fishing structure is so important regardless of how small the structure is a big bass will feed there especially under the cover of darkness it doesn't take much water for a fish that big to hide.Naturally there are many more puzzle pieces to this.I try and think about the structure I'm fishing what it looks like underwater which way the wind and tide are pushing water over that structure naturally the way the water is going will be the same way the bait is being pushed over it so in theory if the fish is there it will eat.I'm a point guy and deep water cuts in the sandbars that allow those fish to enter the inner bar.These are the areas I target the most.Utilize fan casting when it can be done you will cover more ground with less effort.

BassBuddah
11-22-2013, 12:58 PM
^^ I agree surfstix. Montauk also the fishing was terrible. One of the worst years I can remember recently. The thing that must get to a lot of folks out there is they suffer through a bad season and then are dying for a bass. They come in for a few weeks and are overjoyed. I read your posts about catching fish all day. Same experience for me 15-20 years ago. Most of the younger surfcasters don't remember that because they weren't fishing then. A good season is one where they see fish and catch some to take home. As for great year on the SS, hardly. There are so many bays and bridges that did not hold fish this fall. I remember getting herring, swimming them in the back, and getting slammed by 20-30 lb bass at night. Haven't seen that size bass around for quite some time.

surfstix1963
11-23-2013, 05:55 AM
The fish are all micro bass now which is somewhat positive.Like you mentioned 10 years ago we weren't getting micro bass until Mid December,some years we had good size fish into December.Things are on a downhill slide.