S&A Education Series: NJ's resident bass, why have they abandoned us?
After an intense effort last night finding to try a pattern to get some decent fish, I finally saw the light. :eek:
There is a pattern....:kooky:
Resident fish are not here in NJ in numbers like they were only a few short years ago.
Think I'm kidding? Do you have a stash of resident bass that you've been happily nailing, night after night, while more experienced anglers come up empty handed? :huh:
Say "yes" to that question, and my answer to you is that there is a very short list of places where guys can consistently put together catches of quality bass night after night, and many of them aren't accessible from the surf/shore by the general public. ;)
I started this thread to once again get some of us into reasonable discussion why there are less bass around. That's the theorem I'll try to prove to you folks out there.
If anyone has a differing opinion, by all means post up. :thumbsup: Please try to back up your opinion with some kind of data or anecdotal example how it applies to you as a surf angler.
Remember, I'm not saying bass aren't thick off our coast in 60' of water.
But the surf anglers could always count on the overflow for many years. For the past 3 years I've seen a severe decline in opportunity and places that hold fish.
Of course, if anyone wants to come out with me on a kayak, I'll show ya where tons of schoolies still gather. :lookhappy: However, my point here is those bass aren't necessarily available to the shore anglers or surfcasters.
I thought we'd have some discussions here, to try to understand why. :learn:
The M&M theory of striped bass; Canaries in a coal mine
The M&M theory makes an analogy of striped bass fishing to a bowl of M&Ms.
It says that there seem to be more striped bass, to people fishing in the middle of the bowl of M&Ms, because they wouldn't notice any decline. Any decline would only be noticed on the edges of the bowl.
More discussion on that theory here:
http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...+theory&page=8
M&Ms - posts 69 & 69
http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...+theory&page=7
The OFFC (Old Farts Fishing Club) used to hammer this theme into me every time we fished together, only they didn't call it the M&M theory. They saw it in simpler terms.They said the surf fishermen are fishing on the edges, and as we benefit from the overflow of the fish from the offshore migration, we could be the first to notice any declines in fishing. To me, that's similar to the canary in the coal mine, where miners placed a canary in the mine to warn them of deadly invisible gases. If the canary died, it was time for all to leave ASAP. :scared:
So you can call it the M&M theory, or the Canary in a coal mine theory. I think either of them offers a reasonable partial explanation of why there are less resident bass available for surf fishermen.
The Finchaser theory/theories
Many of those in the surf and boating word know Finchaser, with over 55 years of fishing experience.
He's got many theories. As one fortunate enough to know him, I've heard a few. Some of the themes you see on a recurring basis in these threads here are due to his wisdom and the years of knowledge he's gained. :thumbsup:
He saw the abundance of the pre-1984 Moratorium years, and the decline.
He's seen the phenomenal recovery in striped bass stocks after the Moratorium was imposed. :lookhappy:
He's also seen the relatively recent decline in catch numbers for most of the seasoned surf guys in the NJ area.
Anyone who has a chance should listen to some of the posts and warnings he's putting out there. Though he's known to be Grouchy ;) his posts paint a picture to anyone who'll listen, of what's really going on.
There is no diplomacy or sugar-coating in a Finchaser post, he tells it like he sees it.
And what he sees are a decline in the bass available to us surf fishermen, which also implies a decline in resident bass somewhere along the road. :(
Sometimes I wonder if guys really care about any of this. A post about 40 or 50# bass will always draw lots of interest.
Or...will it take months or years of declining catches or skunked trips for many of you to actually start scratching your heads and asking "Why?" :huh:
My point to you is that sometimes it's not so much the catching that's important, someone will always be catching something.
But when there is a sustained lull in activity during what's historically prime time for fishing, it makes sense to question why that's happening... :learn:
Waiting for the fall run to begin
This guy spouts off every day, I can't stand him -
"Everything is perfect except for the fish. We need more days like today and last night to get the water temps down and the big run started."
I have news for him, he needs better sources of information.
The water temps are fine. The big run of bass has already started. The bass are in deeper water, but he as a tackle shop owner should know that. I don't know why he would mis-represent that to his customer base. As further proof of this, there bass already in South Jersey, the run is already in full swing. A 43lb bass was weighed in at Brigantine this week.
The problem, as Dark said, is that there truly are not as many bass around. This year is the worst year we have had in a long time. Spring was great when the bass were on bunker, but the fall is also usually pretty bountiful. So far it's been tough, the fish are situated in only a few places with rocks or bait underneath, and miles and miles of the ocean (inshore near the surf) have no striped bass life in them.
We have found fish, but the bite is not the crazy bite it has been in years past. You will have an hour or so of great action and then it shuts down. Today it was overcast, and on overcast days we usually do better. I will emphatically state that according to my fishing logs there are declining striper catches. And sadly, that does translate to less bass for the guys who mostly fish the surf, and less resident bass, as has been said here.
Bait migration and variety
We've had an intense bait migration in the surf within the last 10 days. In some places you have phenomenal amounts of bunker, large, small, and many other forage fish moving through. This in itself should have predators hitting the shores in hordes as they drive baitfish out of the water.
In some cases, it has happened, as blues 15+lbs and bass to 32lbs were caught in isolated blitzes. This has been great for those fortunate to be there when that was happening. :thumbsup: :fishing:
My point here is that the standard pattern isn't flowing this year as usual. That's part of surf fishin, years of feast followed by years of relative famine while in another area or state they hammer them.
One thing I'm noticing this year is the bigger the varieties of forage available in any surf zone, the more likelihood the larger predators will be drawn in.
The latest blitzes and sustained action periods have seen adult and juvenile bunker, weakfish, croakers, butterfish, spearing, and some scattered tinker mackerel in the mix.
I don't have all the answers here, I'm just trying to get you folks out there to think, and form your own impressions. :learn:
What gives evidence to my theory about resident bass abandoning us is that now we have 10x the bait as we do predators out there. The temps are perfect. Every cut, rockpile, or juicy piece of structure should hold a bass or 2, and that's simply not the case this fall season. :don't know why: