Re: Fishing reports: Turd Ferguson helps the new guys
I wanted to add a little to this.
I was thinking that Sunday's Harvest moon would have cleared the bay area (Raritan and Barnegat) out of mullet and peanuts.
Did some scouting on the way home after last trip and found this to not be exactly true.
There are many areas that no longer hold bait, so this bay migration to the ocean is happening, albeit a little at a time.
It seems the Barnegat Bay and similar areas have dumped their mullet out faster.
Evidence of this is in the surf line at IBSP and LBI, where you can see steady schools of mullet and the little blues are all over them.
However, this has not happened to as great an extent in Monmouth County...the mullet presence in the surf line there is noticably lighter. At least it was to me when i scouted these areas.
The important thing to note is that the Raritan Bay and NY Bight area is still holding a tremendous amount of bait, spearing, rainfish, mullet, 5" peanut bunker, spot/lafayette, and small porgies, blackfish, and seabass. Even some adult bunker as well.
This is only a hypothesis, but....
I look for this bait to stick around awhile, possibly exiting around Columbus Day...or sooner if a severe storm system develops.
If you can do some scouting and know what to look for, you might find some good fish.
All the legal fish and bigger blues I have found so far have been tight to the largest bait concentrations. :learn:
Re: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
This thread really makes you think when you go out there. I probably don't do scoutiing near as much as you do dark but I have started to look in the harbors. It is like an adventure, you are right. Thanks
Re: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
It's pretty apparent to me that the affects from Sandy have altered the fall 2012 striped bass migration.
As Fin and others have mentioned, much of that migration has been offshore. As a result the boats fishing inshore, and the surf guys, have not had a great fall, post-Sandy, thus far.
Just noting it here for the records.
There are several key things that put a hole in our expectations of a bite returning...
1. The bait being flushed out from everywhere was probably at the top of the list. We haven't had a fall "flush out" of that nature in decades.
2. The noreaster that developed one week later was a crushing blow to some of the good action that remained. This, coupled with the harsh north winds, drastically dropped the temps in most bay and river areas. The fish that some of us are seeing up North, could be the Hudson fish that got flushed out of the Bight and Bays....these are small fish that traditionally we don't see till the end of the run. Figuring which are Hudson, and which are others, is sometimes difficult.
3. Now, some bait and fish have moved back closer to shore, but the extreme amounts of bait that held them in prior falls is just not there.
4. This is a reminder that all years are slightly different, and a good fisherman understands that.
5. The Shining Star for fishing success this fall was the Delaware Bay. It seems right after the storm a greater amount of bass than usual streamed into that bay, and guys enjoyed a fantastic fishery for a few weeks. I feel that's because of the food. Delaware Bay was loaded with adult and peanut bunker in the deepwater channels. Perhaps to a greater extent than many other areas.
6. There is talk now about a spike up in activity as herring are now inshore, and in some cases have come in very close. Sandeels finally made an appearance as well on some of the beaches in the LBI area.. I'm glad to see and hear of that. However, IMO. the predominant forage for the past week has been the rainfish. These fish can move greater distances in a short period of time than the sandeels. Therefore, I'm happy to hear of the catches, but still not optimistic that we will have a sustained bite.
7. IMO even the boat guys are getting scattered catches, and mostly pulling numbers by trolling....this is another indication of how few fish there are out there. Addiitionally, there are large pods of rainfish with no bass on them at all, another indication of the lack of numbers of bass left in the NY Bight and NJ areas other than southernmost NJ.
Hope springs eternal in the minds of the fishermen. :fishing: :thumbsup:
I have learned over the years, that many guys go fishing not specifically to catch, but for a need to be out there....that's part of the reason I'm out there as well.
**Remember that as with many things in life, the fishing can turn on, or off, quite quickly...when you hear fish are being caught, it's probably a good idea to make it a priority to go out and get one...:learn: :HappyWave:
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Re: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DarkSkies
3. Now, some bait and fish have moved back closer to shore, but the extreme amounts of bait that held them in prior falls is just not there.
4. This is a reminder that all years are slightly different, and a good fisherman understands that.
6. However, IMO. the predominant forage for the past week has been the rainfish. These fish can move greater distances in a short period of time than the sandeels. Therefore, I'm happy to hear of the catches, but still not optimistic that we will have a sustained bite.
7. IMO even the boat guys are getting scattered catches, and mostly pulling numbers by trolling....this is another indication of how few fish there are out there. Addiitionally, there are large pods of rainfish with no bass on them at all, another indication of the lack of numbers of bass left in the NY Bight and NJ areas other than southernmost NJ.
I highlighted this area, again, Some folks out there are saying we will have bass throughout the Winter in certain NNJ beach areas because of the proximity to the NY Bight and that the Hudson fish are the ones that will be around all winter.....This is just not accurate... although I'm not trying to offend, as some saying this are friends of mine....
What I feel happened was during the last 2 weeks, there was a window for the bass to go back into the NY Bight and the Hudson Winter holding areas....and they did....the temp chart below supports this and shows when it was possible.........
Attachment 15912
If you look closely you can see that there were points where the temp in the NY Bight was in the mid 40's, which I believe would be the trigger for these fish to return to the NY Bight and Hudson Winter staging areas......
These occurences have been small windows, but these temp windows are extremely important.
Re: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
Differences from 2011....
Again, not looking to slam on what others are saying, just to point out that some of them don't fish that often. As some of the research they are posting is a few years old, it doesn't come from actual experience. Some of the experts who make predictions out there spend very little time on the water......
There is a group of anglers here, on the other hand, who are out there all the time.....they see things as they actually unfold....and not as prescribed in a scientific paper somewhere........
***That's one of the reasons when the members here talk about the decline in bass, while others are putting up 1 year of promising YOY stats, which purportedly shows that bass are healthy, you have to take those kinds of proclamations with a grain of salt.
Bear in mind that these are not just my predictions. The old salts know all this as they talk about it obsessively. :HappyWave: If there are any subtle changes from one year to the next, they discuss it ad infinitum...:rolleyes:
Really, who better to assess the health of the striped bass fishery than old salts who fish every chance they get? :learn:
Re: S&A Education Series: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
Anyway, these are the differences, so far, that differentiate last year from this year......
And the folks reading this should remember that I'm not a scientist, just a realist who might fish a little too much.....:laugh: :)
1. 2011... the temperature inversion described in the post above was much more severe.
2. There was a tremendous amount of bait in the Mud Hole, Shrewsbury rocks, and several rocks areas within 1 mile of much of the Monmouth County coastline.
3. The 2011 replenishment dredging also brought up thousands of whitelegger crabs, which made their new home on the beach cuts, structure, and particularly the jetty and rocky shoreline areas......these whiteleggers joined with the Asian shore crabs to make each rocky area a feeding station.
4. Crab Molts....There were regular molts of these crabs, the scent of which brought the bass in during these molts. This was a special aberration. Crabs usually molt once a month, but during the Winter of 2011 ....I documented them molting twice a month. It was unreal. At times it was a feeding frenzy. :drool:Some friends were able to catch as many as 50 bass a night on the key molting nights.
5. Since the storm Sandy, there have not been any crabs in these jetty areas. They are all gone. There are addtional tiny mole crabs in the surf, but that is not enough to sustain large populations of "over-wintering" bass...it just isn't.
6. The sandeels that many were hoping for are now only to be found in a few areas, as mentioned.
7. There are herring and squid, but not in the quantities that were around last year. The rainfish, as mentioned, are too mobile to be considered to hold fish in one area consistently. Some winter spearing have shown up, but chiefly in back bay areas and rivers. (far too late for the fish in many areas to find them) and feed on them, with the notable exception of some South Jersey bay areas.
8. Simply put, the temperature inversion, and the abundant bait, kept the large bodies of fish out in the surf zone for the winter of 2011...the first time in about 7 years that things lined up like that....it was an alliance of all these perfect condtions that kept the fish in that general area.
9. In 2012, so many of these pieces are lacking, it is not logical to assume that this would happen again, in the same way.
10. This is one of the reasons why I am so obsessive about forage....if the food is there, there are bound to be fish looking to eat...no food and they will go somewhere else.......
Also, as Fin has pointed out so many times, if the water temps are too cold they will tend to move on as well.
11. Based on the lack of forage and the temp spikes in the past 2 weeks, I and some others believe the bulk of the Hudson bass made their way back to the Bay/River/Harbor holding areas.....there may still be some bass around...but the numbers we were seeing in the first 2 weeks of Dec 2012 are just not there anymore....
Re: S&A Education Series: Understanding FALL back bay bait migration and fishing patterns
This is confirmed by people we know who were clam fishing and could catch 25 bass in a matter of a few hours....even the robustness of the clam bite has slowed down substantially...giving further evidence that the fish that some claim are there.....are not....
I realize I am a bit more obsessive about these things than some others out there...For me it makes sense...if I'm going to spend the gas and tolls to get to the water I want to know if the fish are there, and most importantly, why.....so my extensive logs and attention to detail has really helped me to find more fish ....this is something anyone could do, if they just put in the effort......:fishing:
**I hope I make it clear to folks reading this, that I am not a scientist, or claim to be an expert on this subject. I am someone who has become obsessive about why the fish are there. i'm constantly learning new things and trying out different versions to challenge my findings....and also very grateful to the legions of old timers on here and elsewhere who have been kind enough to share their views with me.......:HappyWave:
Thanks for reading, and hope this explains things a little better......:HappyWave: