Stripers & Anglers Education Series: Understanding Spring/ Fall Bass Migration for NJ/NY

2012 Bass Migration

This thread was conceived due to the unusual Winter we had in the NJ/LI area.
We had a series of events which kept bass from their usual migration paths.

I thought some folks would be interested in hearing they Why's and What's that makes this Spring Migration different.

Feel free to jump in with opinions, even if they are different from the ones stated here...:thumbsup:

Or if you have anything you're not sure you understand, feel free to ask...



As always, I'm deeply grateful for the folks along the NE Coast who send me reports, many of which are never posted here. And the daily conversations I have with a circle of Veteran Fishermen, Old-Timers who are obsessive about analyzing the details (Hey, they're retired a lot of them...gives them something to do....:laugh: :HappyWave:)
Regardless... they help I and some others, to get a clearer picture, of Why the fish are Where they are for a particular moment in time....

For starters, we already have a thread that addresses the Coastal Bass Migration started by Jigfreak.
Feel free to take a look if you're interested in learning some things about this amazing Migration...

http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...iper+migration

Striped Bass Migration as it Applies to the East Coast

Three main bodies of striped bass are the most closely followed by scientists.

They are said to comprise the largest % of the Total Estimated Biomass, which is the total amount of Striped Bass that Fisheries Scientists "think" is out there.

These Biomass figures are derived from Sampling YOY (Year of the Young) catch averages (Sample Size).


This process begins with a series of yearly Seine Net Hauls.
In these Seine Net Hauls, the YOY (Year of the Young) Stripers are counted, and the results of several Statistically significant areas are compiled.

Then, by using Statistical Methods of Extrapolation/Statistical Analysis to determine a scientific Estimate of Actual Biomass size (the statistics term is called Population), based on the degree of confidence in the sample size....this is part of how the Estimated Biomass figures come to be published.

There are some other techniques used to determine populations in a specific area, (Electro-shock, Angler Reports ie registering with NOAA for a phone survey, and the Angler Surveys that some folks would answer by the Field Reps carrying clipboards, etc) but I don't want to hijack into that area.


If any of you folks are personally familiar with all these methods, please let me know and I will let you start a separate thread to help educate the members here. :fishing:

Striped Bass East Coast Migration:

As referenced in the thread by Jigfreak -

1. The 3 main populations of Striped Bass are the Chesapeake, Delaware, and Hudson pops.
   
2. There are some other pops which I feel are statistically significant, particularly the main rivers dumping into the LI Sound and some large NJ Rivers.
   
3. I am developing stats on those spawning populations now, and will eventually be writing an article encouraging more study on the striped bass from these areas.

Striped Bass Migration as it applies to NJ and LI Anglers, and the Changes as of Winter 2011:

1. Please be aware that I'm talking about the main populations or bodies of fish one would find on the water here. There are always pockets of fish that will be separated, and I truly believe no 2 years are exactly alike in terms of fish behavior.
   
2. It traditionally holds that the bass run down the coast of NJ in the late fall to winter over in the VA/NC area. Some years they winter over in the Chesapeake Bay area, near the CBBT. Other years they winter further south, off the Central and Southern Coast of NC.
   
3. When the temperature is coldest, they will winter offshore.
   
4. Similar to the bluefish, but not as severe, as recently as 2 years ago the largest body of bass was found wintering approx 30 miles off the Coast of NC.
   
5. As fishing beyond 3 miles is prohibited, and these fish were highly concentrated, many boats pursued them far offshore.
   
6. This resulted in lots of anger from anglers in other states when they saw the laws being broken and fish being slaughtered in their winter grounds. I spend weeks meticulously researching this and wrote an article on it: Fishing in the EEZ.... http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...ead.php?t=5801
   
7. Generally speaking, it was thought that Delaware and Chesapeake strains of bass wintered down in the areas I described.
   
8. The Hudson strain was said to winter in the NY Bight, and the deep pools of the upper Hudson below some of the reservoirs.
   
9. By the NY Bight, I'm referring to the deeper waters of the Arthur Kill and NY Harbor as wintering areas.
   
10. Here's why - deeper waters don't get as cold as some of the shallow bay water. The bay and river waters freeze up in the coldest winters, except for the Hudson (usually).
    
11. It has also been said by some, that Hudson fish do not go further south than Cape May.(I'll later come back to show that this is not a valid argument).

Theory VS Reality....as it applied to the 2011 Winter Season - Facts and Myths about Hudson River fish

1. Hudson River fish - As mentioned they usually spend the winter in the NJ/NY Bight and the deep pools of the Hudson River - their range was thought to only extend as far south as Cape May.
   
2. For the winter of 2011 - that proved to be different for the Surfcasters like I and a few fortunate others who pursued them aggressively. We were able to catch fish up to 40lbs, and some of us have catches up to the high 300s in the period of December to February 2012.
   
3. It became clear to us that the fish that were supposed to winter in the Hudson were wintering in the waters off of Monmouth County in a line, that extended to Long Island... between Asbury Park and the Rockaways in Long Island. There was an abundance of fish above this line, from 50' ocean depths to the shallows of the jetties and coves on the oceanfronts. I have confirmed reports from surfcasters catching within this whole area.
   
4. To us, these were Hudson fish that never went upriver.
   
5. Once the temps moderated around the 2nd week of March 2012, these fish started to move around within this area, causing anglers in other areas to think that "new bodies of fish were coming in." :huh:This thinking was not entirely accurate because many anglers were not aware that these fish were here for the whole Winter. Again, not trying to argue, but if you were not out fishing for these fish or didn't know someone who was, it would have been understandably hard for you to grasp the concepts I'm talking about here....
   
6. Many folks stick to the old pattern that some of the Hudson fish were down as far as Cape May. This was simply not the case. When the season opened Mar 1 and Cape May Boats started fishing for striped bass, they were simply not there in abundance.
   
7. Somewhere around the end of March, a large body of Stripers was reported off the Delaware Coastline. These stripers, along with some smaller bluefish were making their way North...
   
8. These fish were in fact the Hudson strain of fish, mixed in with the Delaware Strain. There was no other reasonable explanation for these fish being where they were at that time.
   
9. The Hudson fish continued North, where for the first week of April there was tremendous action along the NJ Coast, from LBI to Sandy Hook. Some folks described this action as "EPIC" as they had never seen such level of activity in early April before.
   
10. What many didn't realize is that these fish had been diverted from their normal Hudson migration by the extreme abundance of food, and the temperate ocean waters which seemed to create a "line" across some of the bay areas that the fish would not cross. It was only when the NY Bight started to warm up that these fish moved along with the herring schools to make the long trip upriver to the Hudson spawning grounds.
    
11. As there was such an abundance of bait and moderate temps outside the Hudson, it took a very long time for the bass to even get near the Hudson....hence the great early season back bay in the Raritan Bay.
    
12. At the time of this thread the fish have just started to head up the Hudson en masse...yes there have been isolated catches of larger fish in the Hudson since March 1, but most anglers were not catching far upriver....I'll talk about this in another post.

Another reason I started this S&A continuing education series is that there are respected anglers out there, voices of the communities they are in, who really don't understand migration, striped bass, bluefish, and all other species, to the extent that they are not sure why fish are in a certain area at a certain time of year....

As a result some of of them give out information that is inaccurate. IMO that really doesn't help the guys who are looking to learn. I know many folks just want to catch a fish, and learning for some of them is secondary....but what I have been fortunate to learn is that the conditions about WHY the fish are there, are key to being able to consistently catch fish.....If you truly want to learn, and log your failures as well as your successes, you will be almost be able to predict how the fish will behave, in terms of movement, throughout a season of fishing.

To me, being able to track those fish, and the whys and the subtle nuances of what happens during the migrations, is as exciting as the fishing itself....and it's something a few close friends and I have obsessive conversations about.....





As mentioned, I know that most folks just want to catch a fish....
but what if you could increase your odds over time, by focusing on time, tides, bait patterns, migration and weather patterns, to the extent that you could decrease your time not catching by focusing on times and places where the fish were likely to be?


That's what I'm trying to get folks to think about here, when they read threads like this...http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...cons/icon3.png
And also, as part of the big picture, to try to understand more about fish and bait migration and how it relates to our perceptions of the fish biomass and it's relative health or lack thereof...



** Also, when I or Finchaser post up a thread, I sometimes think that folks may feel intimidated in responding...remember that there are no "wrong" answers here....we all have opinions, and if you think you have something to contribute, even if you don't agree.... please do....:thumbsup: :HappyWave:




And there are no stupid questions either...if you were thinking about asking it, someone else may have that same question, so ask away....:)

Very well said dark skies. The migration patterns have changed and the smart folks will recognize it. I enjoy your threads and will try to help you any way that I can. You do have a nice way of putting things into words. It is too much for us older folks to accomplish. Keep up the good work.

Great read so far, thanks guys.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

Theory VS Reality....as it applied to the 2011 Winter Season - Facts and Myths about Hudson River fish

At the time of this thread the fish have just started to head up the Hudson en masse...yes there have been isolated catches of larger fish in the Hudson since March 1, but most anglers were not catching far upriver....I'll talk about this in another post.

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Since this post things have fallen into place nicely. The Hudson River fish are now within the entire range of the Hudson river. It's hard to estimate these things scientifically, and my point is...I think the scientists have trouble estimating these things with accuracy as well.....

However, based on conversations with Charter Boat Capts, and folks who have been fishing for bass regularly, I think it might be fair to say that over 80% of the bass that were in the area, are now in that river or directly in front of it....

The bass action in the back of the Raritan Bay has slowed considerably....although folks are catching, friends who fish regularly confirm this slowdown in action....

There are some bass left in the Bay and Rivers, and some bass left in the ocean, but the numbers are incredibly minimal compared to just a short week ago.....











*******
Look for a period of slow or minimal bass activity for NNJ beaches, for about 5 to 10 days..... (Again this is just an estimate)
This activity should be supplemented by the incredible bay bluefish action as there are reports of larger blues mixed in with cocktail blues (First year in a while this has happened) all over the NY/NJ Bight.


The poor showings for the NJ party boats fishing in the ocean are further evidence of this....

Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Bass....



These fish have finished spawning and are slowly making their way up the NJ Coast from the Cape May area,,,,,there are some nicer fish being caught down that way, but, (logically speaking) you can expect a time lag of a few days for these fish to hit the northern beaches....

Again, this is imprecise and hard to pin down exactly as not all giant schools of bass have traveled together this year as has been the traditional behavior....

What we have had is waves and waves of smaller bodies of fish....and determined anglers will still be able to pick some nice ones here and there......

Look for an increase in activity around the next full moon.... (May full moon)





********
I wish I had more time to go into greater detail but this is the best I can do for now.......
Also don't forget that all major NJ, LI, and CT Rivers have possible populations of bass that spawn in the biggest rivers.....These populations are considered to be statistically insignificant and are therefore not covered by most researchers....


I'm just now starting to put together an article on this and will publish the research when it is finished......

Quote:

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Originally Posted by storminsteve

Great read so far, thanks guys.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by clamchucker

Very well said dark skies. The migration patterns have changed and the smart folks will recognize it. I enjoy your threads and will try to help you any way that I can. You do have a nice way of putting things into words. It is too much for us older folks to accomplish. Keep up the good work.

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Thank you all for the kind words....and Clamchucker I am deeply indebted to folks like you, Finchaser, the OFFC, Surfwalker, and the many others here who have been kind enough to share their experiences and thoughts about fishing for these amazing fish in the last 5 decades....:clapping:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Bass....



These fish have finished spawning and are slowly making their way up the NJ Coast from the Cape May area,,,,,there are some nicer fish being caught down that way, but, (logically speaking) you can expect a time lag of a few days for these fish to hit the northern beaches....

Again, this is imprecise and hard to pin down exactly as not all giant schools of bass have traveled together this year as has been the traditional behavior....

What we have had is waves and waves of smaller bodies of fish....and determined anglers will still be able to pick some nice ones here and there......

Look for an increase in activity around the next full moon.... (May full moon)...

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As a footnote to that, the bass are moving quicker than I thought (As I said much of this is based on conversations with folks who live in these respective areas and the hypotheses we come up with together)....but in the end it is all conjecture....

Some times we are right on the $$, other times we have to be aware that these are just predictions or armchair analysis, and can be a little off. :don't know why:


I encourage all those reading this, to keep a detailed log.
Not only of your catches but of the predator and bait migration patterns.

In time you will see how valuable that info becomes. I was able to zero in on a fantastic herring bite last week because of following such migrations.






Moving forward, I think it's fair to say that all the bass that would be spawning in the Hudson,. are in there now...
They will continue do their thing for the next 2 weeks at least, then drop down into the Bight, hungry as hell.

There are some nice waves of bass now along the NJ coast. However I feel that fishing will continue to be inconsistent as these fish are arriving in waves. If you are out there at the right time, surf or boat, you may have a fantastic day of fishing...


The bluefish action in the bays is shaping up to be some of the best inshore and surf action we have had in years. I'm very excited about this. Hope other folks are as well. :viking:


the bottom line is...bigger fish are moving along the coast now, and also migratiing through the Mud Hole to LI and further north....you can't catch these fish from behind a computer screen......good luck out there, people....:HappyWave:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

the bottom line is...bigger fish are moving along the coast now, and also migratiing through the Mud Hole to LI and further north....you can't catch these fish from behind a computer screen......good luck out there, people....:HappyWave:

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Yes they are.
:)And you definitely can't catch them in front of a computer.

^^Seems the bigger bluefish are staying slightly out of the sandy beach area and have staged just a tad out there where there are now countless grass shrimp, supplemented by rainfish and spearing that just moved in in numbers last week.










Feeding window:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rip316

We finished up around 230. There were kayaks out there but, where I was there were no guys on the beach. Only three guys wading to the chest deep water about 2 to 300 yards out. They got into them good.

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Thanks to Rip for that report. :HappyWave:
I was trying to explain this to someone else yesterday. Hope I didn't get him mad. :) I'm a little intense in my explanations at times. :bonk: There is a definite feeding window when it comes to bass and bluefish. If you are not aware of that you may get skunked and think there are no fish there at all.

Your job as an angler is to figure out what the window is, for that particular place you want to fish.









For bass, the usual window is at night. (for shore bound anglers)
This gets trumped if there are large quantities of bait which spur them to feed in the day (ie blitz action)


For bluefish, this window will mostly exist in the daytime.
Night feeds for bluefish are a whole different ballgame, and really depend on high bait concentrations, pinch points, tides, and current.

For the Raritan bay, the pattern has been that the bottom half of the tide will produce slightly
better bluefish action as the bluefish fill the flats to feed, and then taper off slightly to no action as there is a point after the tide turns when they leave.

As you learn to recognize this, you will learn when to stay and anticipate the action, or when to move on to another area.

Right now, bass are more frequently caught in some Raritan bay areas, near the bottom of the tide.
For those trying to get bass instead of blues, fishing the slack of the ebb, bottom, and bottom of incoming seems to be a good strategy now for northern bay areas.
Same for weakfish, where you will find higher activity around both tide changes.




Yesterday, the only really solid bluefish action (for shore anglers), with double digits being caught by guys who waded out, was toward the bottom of the tide.

There was one other area where they had tremendous action near the top, but that was because some large schools of rainfish moved in, and then the bite became bait-dependent, rather than tide-dependent.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

Feeding window:
There is a definite feeding window when it comes to bass and bluefish. If you are not aware of that you may get skunked and think there are no fish there at all.

Your job as an angler is to figure out what the window is, for that particular place you want to fish.

For the Raritan bay, the pattern has been that the bottom half of the tide will produce slightly
better bluefish action as the bluefish fill the flats to feed, and then taper off slightly to no action as there is a point after the tide turns when they leave.

As you learn to recognize this, you will learn when to stay and anticipate the action, or when to move on to another area.

Right now, bass are more frequently caught in some Raritan bay areas, near the bottom of the tide.
For those trying to get bass instead of blues, fishing the slack of the ebb, bottom, and bottom of incoming seems to be a good strategy now for northern bay areas.
Same for weakfish, where you will find higher activity around both tide changes.

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Dark I have to hand it to you. You are spot on on a lot of your analysis. You seem to be a fanatic about this. I hope this pays off for you and you get back to fishing again as you deserve some nice fish as well.
This is what Capt Al Ristori posted tonight:

Published: Saturday, May 19, 2012, 8:29 PM Updated: Saturday, May 19, 2012, 9:19 PM

"For some reason, striped bass have been hitting better on the incoming tide lately. I've heard that from several anglers, and Capt. Rob Semkewyc of the Sea Hunter from Atlantic Highlands made the same observation today. His boat only had one bass today, but some big blues were added. Semkewyc noted that the water is discolored on the ebb."
http://www.nj.com/shore/blogs/fishin...e_incomin.html

Thanks dark good read, have been finding the bass hitting on the bottom of the tide as well. Not too many bass lately. I think the blues scared them off.

Thanks people for the kind words.
I'm still not fishing regularly as my vehicle is being fixed.
It's killing me, you have no idea the withdrawal I'm going through....(maybe some of ya's do...) :headbang::fishing:

Remember, though, regarding my analysis....
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.,....:laugh:

And...to learn the things I now know...it took many disappointing trips trying to find fish, figuring out why they weren't there, and parlaying that,. along with a comprehensive log and friendships with some of the best of the best out there....to get a general sense of when one should be out there and putting in their time....

As I've stated over and over in many threads here...for the surf guys the fish are just not as concentrated as they were 8 short years ago....and it really has been more difficult to target and catch fish from the surf with artificials......

Anyone who tells ya it isn't.....isn't being completely honest.....


Thanks again....:HappyWave:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

I encourage all those reading this, to keep a detailed log.
Not only of your catches but of the predator and bait migration patterns.

In time you will see how valuable that info becomes. I was able to zero in on a fantastic herring bite last week because of following such migrations.

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Very good advice ds.

What would you guys say about the bluefish in this migration? How do they fit into the puzzle. Do they travel together with the stripers? thanks

I also had a question about stripers. I am trying to learn so please excuse me if it sounds stupid. I have read about 4 experts online today saying there is a big bunch of bass down in the southern part of nj. I guess that is what the guys in the waiting thread are waiting for? At what point to you know when the stripers are in NJ or somewhere else?

Also a Capt of a Charter boat said that the reason he is not catching now is that stripers haven't spawned yet. Which stripers would those be and how do they fit into the picture. Thanks for any help guys.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by clamchucker

Very well said dark skies. The migration patterns have changed and the smart folks will recognize it. I enjoy your threads and will try to help you any way that I can. You do have a nice way of putting things into words. It is too much for us older folks to accomplish. Keep up the good work.

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Thank you clamchucker have learned so much from your posts over the years.
ds was going over this thread again looking for some clues about what happened to the Spring Run this year and how things were affected by Sandy. Have to say that some of the posts by clamchucker, finchaser, and you are the most detailed and thorough I have seen out there when it comes to the study of stripers and striped bass migration. Thanks for your generosity in sharing your knowledge.

Also, this question is directed to any one here who knows - was trying to learn if things Post-Sandy were different this year for striper migration, and if so what your thoughts were on why? Thank you

I know what you guys are saying and agree. I was actually saying the migratory fish are still around. I figured they would be gone by now. AS for me, I am going to target my friend the dogfish. At least I can make some money off the tagged fish, LOL!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by robmedina

I know what you guys are saying and agree. I was actually saying the migratory fish are still around. I figured they would be gone by now. !

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Rob, i have been estimating that 75-80% of the migratory bass have passed us by now.
This knowledge came from Capts and friends who fish for them up and down the Coast, and was developed from dozens of real-time conversations with these folks who fish every day for bass. I want to folks out there reading this to know that I do not claim to be an expert....,

However, I'm good at putting data together, and piecing similar conversations together with these folks, to try and come up with some kind of real consensus, as to where we are at, in different stages in the migration.

Being as accurate as possible is important to me....
It causes me to wince, when less than 2 weeks ago some well-known Capts were saying they were waiting for the bass to be done with the spawn, and they would show up "Any day now"...and then, a few days later, abandoning their striper trips and advertising fluke trips.....

I realize Capts have to fill the boats....they can't be completely candid at all times....but on the other hand...a little honesty goes a long way......some of the Capts I have spoken with regularly have admitted (with the exception of the few great weeks in the Raritan Bay fishery) this is the worst striped bass season ever for them..it saddens me that some aren't willing to admit that publically......

Back to the bass...and the Spring migration........:fishing:
Based on conversations with folks who fish every day, it seems to some of us, that the bass did not follow normal migration patterns this year.....


1. Some of the big schools that had been so easy to find in the past, were replaced by smaller pods of bass, and smaller pods of bunker....for some reason this is the way things developed in some areas.....

2. It also seemed to some of us, that the bass weren't moving along the Coast, in the same way they had in years past.....again, smaller groups, odd migrational habits, where the bass would linger in one area longer than in the past, while others moved on more quickly, bypassing other areas.

3. Hurricane Sandy....definitely had a play in the way we are seeing some of this migrational shift....as it has changed structure, holes that used to be deep and hold schools of bass for weeks at a time,,,,,sloughs, and many areas of beachfront that used to be more receptive to bass migration....are no longer......Some back bay and river areas, that a lot of us counted on, where bass used to come in and feed, before moving on,,,have been covered by tons of sand, resulting in slow rises back to the level where they can support the smallest marine life.....What has been left has been the clam bed areas. As predicted, bass held in many of those areas for a time, giving guys the opportinity to have some great fishing.



4. Food and Forage....
I am obsessive about looking for and finding different kinds of bait when I am out there..knowing that the more forage I find, the more the likelihood will be of bass staging in certain areas for awhile.....

a. The normal small marine life, grass shrimp, crabs, crustaceans. etc. had its numbers severely diminished by Sandy., and in many areas has only started to come back to levels where you can see them. Despite weeks of looking for grass shrimp at night...I only recently started to see them....this is bad...for everything in the fishing food chain feeds on these shrimp and other small creatures.

When you hear about a back bay bite somewhere, (other than on bunker)...you can assure yourself that for some reason it's because that area has a higher concentration of small forage.

b. Many areas did not have good herring runs this year...The ones that did, were ones where a good bite developed....many of the rest have been barren wastelands....

c. The jetties that I know and love have been barren wastelands as well. and have only recently come to life (I have explained that to some of ya's, but may try to go into more detail when I get a chance...the death, of the most minute life on the jetties this winter...has been fascinating to me. and something I documented every time I was out there....

d. Bait migrational patterns have been different....in many cases the largest amounts of bait (other than bunker) have taken the offshore route, and the fish have followed them......





5. Striped bass numbers.....
Some folks said if only we were to save the bunker the striped bass population would be as strong as ever. What they didn't account for, was we were harvesting more than ever before.....
This has become evident last year, and most evident this year, when we have plenty of bunker, but guys are scratching their heads, asking where the bass are.....




Finchaser has a simple answer......"We killed them all"

Whether folks want to believe that, or not., this is the first year in a declining few, where people are publically starting to question if there are as many bass, as some claim there are.....
You have good fishermen going out every day, with decades of experience, and many are not finding bass. other than in the middle of (some) bunker pods...
Not trying to beat a dead horse, but any discussion of striped bass migration must take this possibility of declining numbers into account...

Traditionally the big bass run make their last stand off Monmoth beach and inside area of Shrewberry rocks and often are thin there when the run is in full effect IBSP to Long Branch. Well right now that was their last known position. I had have to guess few skirmishes or random small pods here on out.

Even though I did well with nicer fish this year it was all in super spots, no random pop ups which should happen, didnt even hear of any like that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SharkHart

Even though I did well with nicer fish this year it was all in super spots, no random pop ups which should happen, didnt even hear of any like that.

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I know you keep extensive logs, Shark, try to be where the bass show up every year, because of it, and spend a lot of time on the water..

I appreciate your opinion about the bass being concentrated in certain spots/areas...there have been some cases where if you are off a mile or 2 when looking for them, you will not see anything happen at all.....and this is what worries me most.

1. no consistency,
2. the lack of activity along a whole area when a beach finally turns productive......


** Some have talked about the bass being all offshore this year.....
When you are counting bass that allegedly number in the millions, and not seeing anything inshore...this also speaks poorly of the general health of the fishery. In years past the guys fishing from land could count on at least a few, fishing that way, as those bass were part of the overflow, indicating a healthy biomass....

With the lack of fish along our shorelines,. or being concentrated in only a few areas....A few streets at a time, or one inlet one week, another inlet the next week, is a troubling indication of the poor health of the fishery....there are too many spots in between where there are no fish at all...thanks for your perspective.....:HappyWave:

The positive side to all this., Rob, is even though a majority of fish are in the Rhody/MA/Montauk triangle now....there is still enough of an uncertainty, that you, or I could find few bass at the beach, on any given night, as long as these ocean temps hold around 60 degrees. IMO these ocean temps are slightly lower for this time of year.








IF bait moves in, in certain areas, we could have a bite till the end of June in those areas. The disappointing part of my experience, is that when bait starts to fill in in a certain area, and I find it...by the next night it is usually gone......


Thanks for noticing the things you do,,,Rob..:thumbsup:..paying attention like you do, will make you a better fisherman in the long run....:fishing: :HappyWave:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by robmedina

I know what you guys are saying and agree. I was actually saying the migratory fish are still around. I figured they would be gone by now. AS for me, I am going to target my friend the dogfish. At least I can make some money off the tagged fish, LOL!

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Hey I am glad to hear that too. dark and sharkheart you have to give us guys some hope! Without that there is nothing. rob what do you mean by making money off tagged fish. They give you money for reporting dogfish tags? Get outta town!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

Back to the bass...and the Spring migration........:fishing:
Based on conversations with folks who fish every day, it seems to some of us, that the bass did not follow normal migration patterns this year.....

I am obsessive about looking for and finding different kinds of bait when I am out there..knowing that the more forage I find, the more the likelihood will be of bass staging in certain areas for awhile.....

a. The normal small marine life, grass shrimp, crabs, crustaceans. etc. had its numbers severely diminished by Sandy., and in many areas has only started to come back to levels where you can see them. Despite weeks of looking for grass shrimp at night...I only recently started to see them....this is bad...for everything in the fishing food chain feeds on these shrimp and other small creatures.

When you hear about a back bay bite somewhere, (other than on bunker)...you can assure yourself that for some reason it's because that area has a higher concentration of small forage.

b. Many areas did not have good herring runs this year...The ones that did, were ones where a good bite developed....many of the rest have been barren wastelands....

c. The jetties that I know and love have been barren wastelands as well. and have only recently come to life (I have explained that to some of ya's, but may try to go into more detail when I get a chance...the death, of the most minute life on the jetties this winter...has been fascinating to me. and something I documented every time I was out there....



d. Bait migrational patterns have been different....in many cases the largest amounts of bait (other than bunker) have taken the offshore route, and the fish have followed them......





5. Striped bass numbers.....
Some folks said if only we were to save the bunker the striped bass population would be as strong as ever. What they didn't account for, was we were harvesting more than ever before.....
This has become evident last year, and most evident this year, when we have plenty of bunker, but guys are scratching their heads, asking where the bass are.....




Finchaser has a simple answer......"We killed them all"

Whether folks want to believe that, or not., this is the first year in a declining few, where people are publically starting to question if there are as many bass, as some claim there are.....
You have good fishermen going out every day, with decades of experience, and many are not finding bass. other than in the middle of (some) bunker pods...
Not trying to beat a dead horse, but any discussion of striped bass migration must take this possibility of declining numbers into account...

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Yes, could not agree more with these 2 points.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DarkSkies

Back to the bass...and the Spring migration........:fishing:
Based on conversations with folks who fish every day, it seems to some of us, that the bass did not follow normal migration patterns this year.....



3. Hurricane Sandy....definitely had a play in the way we are seeing some of this migrational shift....as it has changed structure, holes that used to be deep and hold schools of bass for weeks at a time,,,,,sloughs, and many areas of beachfront that used to be more receptive to bass migration....are no longer......Some back bay and river areas, that a lot of us counted on, where bass used to come in and feed, before moving on,,,have been covered by tons of sand, resulting in slow rises back to the level where they can support the smallest marine life.....What has been left has been the clam bed areas. As predicted, bass held in many of those areas for a time, giving guys the opportinity to have some great fishing.



4. Food and Forage....
I am obsessive about looking for and finding different kinds of bait when I am out there..knowing that the more forage I find, the more the likelihood will be of bass staging in certain areas for awhile.....

a. The normal small marine life, grass shrimp, crabs, crustaceans. etc. had its numbers severely diminished by Sandy., and in many areas has only started to come back to levels where you can see them. Despite weeks of looking for grass shrimp at night...I only recently started to see them....this is bad...for everything in the fishing food chain feeds on these shrimp and other small creatures.

When you hear about a back bay bite somewhere, (other than on bunker)...you can assure yourself that for some reason it's because that area has a higher concentration of small forage.

Finchaser has a simple answer......"We killed them all"

Whether folks want to believe that, or not., this is the first year in a declining few, where people are publically starting to question if there are as many bass, as some claim there are.....
You have good fishermen going out every day, with decades of experience, and many are not finding bass. other than in the middle of (some) bunker pods...
Not trying to beat a dead horse, but any discussion of striped bass migration must take this possibility of declining numbers into account...

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Dark, a capt fishing out of Moriches echoed the same comments you made last month about the spearing and lack of small forage:
Capt Tom Cornicelli
" I'm not quite certain whats going on in regard to an area that has always be well known for holding big bass and normally a strong bite, Something to also consider, local spearing a main foraging base for all bay fish aren't here like they should be ? ."


I think the statements you made are right on point. I am noticing less whitebait this year as well. Went to Montauk last week and fishing was poor. Managed a few small bass and one 10#. I have been making this trip the same time every year for 20 years and never fail to catch bass in the 20# class from the surf. This is the first year I did not achieve that. There was a distinct lack of whitebait.
As you and the others here have stated time and time again, the bass numbers are down as well.

I learn something new every time I check this thread. Thanks fellas!

Raritan Bay and NY Bight, including RB estuaries (Raritan River/ Hackensack River system, Arthur Kill, Staten Island) Spring 2014 -
(March - July)


I know this area better than many of the other areas I have fished, simply because I grew up fishing these places as they were closer. At different times I have probably walked and sunk, in most creeks and mud bogs in that area trapping killies and digging for tape and other worms. I would be embarassed to report the number of shoes I have lost wading around out there in the muck, and close calls I had when I couldn't get out of the mud.....
I have been fishing that area aggressively and consistently for the last 25 years......from boat, kayak, and land......

There are others who have more experience than me, and I defer to them when I need to learn more...such as the old timers who sparked my interest with numerous examples of bass spawning in the Raritan river decades ago.......




The Assessment Spring 2014:
(Note, the observations below are generalizations based on my experience, observations, and interviews with hundreds of anglers)
There is always a case where someone's experience doesn't fit what generally happens. Not looking to argue with anyone here....just looking to educate and raise awareness.....of what most seasoned anglers are (generally) seeing......


1. Later start - Later start to season because of colder Winter. This harsh winter probably damaged a lot of the early season forage population, but not as bad as 2013, when forage damage from Sandy was more marked and severe. I believe in 2013, grass shrimp didn't show up in many places until June. As of this date in 2014, there are very few grass shrimp and spearing in the usual places. They are there in the shallowest estuaries, but many of the other places are barren.

2. Dirty Water Bass - The early season is traditionally marked by anglers catching resident fish, which winter over in the Arthur Kill and other deep water ports of the lower Hudson river. You can ID these fish because they (usually) have a darker color and look "muddy" at times....hence the name "dirty water bass" and other names they have been called.
Every year, these bass are (generally) caught first by land anglers as the fish wake up from lethargy and start to roam the shallow water flats. These fish are available by the thousands.

In 2014, the numbers caught in this area, were only in the hundreds...
Boat anglers and others didn't start catching bigger fish regularly until April 17, 2014...
If the bass are so healthy, Where were these resident bass that are there every year?


3. Shallow water - Anglers usually start catching these (early) resident fish as the mud flats on the southern side of the bay heats up, near clam beds where the worms become active. For most years that (generally) means that the Southern side of the bay heats up first. The Staten Island and northern areas are generally closer to channels and deeper water, which (generally) means the bite turns on later in that deeper and colder water.




4. Find bait and find fish - any of the above general observations can be negated by large quantities of bait. In the spring it's usually large pods of bunker. To this day it amazes me that so few have an understanding of the bunker, or how they behave, other than asking others where to find them. When you begin to understand them better, you begin to see how it's all inter-related. We had an unusually warm winter back in 2011 when bunker were in some of the bays and harbors in February. Generally, they don't migrate from the south that early, but by March and April you can find them if you are willing to move around and look.

Generally, they come in with the flood tide, and leave with the ebb. The bunker you see are migrating as well. The ones you see today might not be the same ones you saw yesterday. Bunker also sometimes sit in deeper water in the channels and marinas, and only rise to feed when conditions are optimal.

I am amazed at the amount of times I'm out there crossing the channels in a kayak, and the bunker are just beginning to rise to the surface (boat traffic can also put them down). A Captain will blow right by me with binocs, looking for bunker, not realizing he just passed by the mother lode when he crossed that channel.

As mentioned, bass will follow large schools of bunker. If there are only a few big bass under them you might never know those bass are there. Hence the complaint from many who go out for a day of fishing "Well we saw all these bunker pods but nothing under them, very frustrating"

** A. Also, if there is an exceptionally large body of bunker, fish will follow them anyway, and the previous observations don't always apply, because the action is then dominated by the bunker.
B. When a large body of bunker leaves an area for the night, it tends to draw out most of the fish with it. Another frustration experienced by Capts and all fishermen. Understanding this, and fish behavior, is key to predicting where they could be the next day (Hint - bunker usually feed into the wind)

5. Structural changes and fish location changes - this is so important I decided to put it by itself. Many folks out there are resistant to this logic, instead falsely using it as being the reason for "seeing the most bass I have ever seen!"
Hint - the bass are now more concentrated, in a lesser # of areas. :learn:


Why?
A. Sandy's storm devastated some bay estuaries. Some shoreline and creek areas still have not recovered and are devoid of life.
B. Many creeks that used to hold small forage and had clam beds a short distance from the mouth now have these clam beds covered by silt, which has greatly decreased the worm and clam beds in the bay.

C. Old Orchard Lighthouse and Sandy destruction - This was a significant event. If you are a seasoned fisherman or Capt you know why. The destruction of the lighthouse immediately distributed those rocks throughout the area, increasing the surface area and structure by up to 300%.
This area was traditionally known by most Capts to hold fish, and the bigger fish that came into the bay.
The old pattern was that, for weeks at a time after the spawn., bass would come down the Hudson, and sit and feed at old orchard before moving on. Sometimes they were there for weeks at a time. Many of the bigger fish above 30# came from this general area.

Since Sandy, this area has become prime hunting ground for bigger bass.

The pattern has shifted to one where they now show up, Before, and After, the spawn.
They are not always there, and no one is guaranteed a fish....but if you know and understand fish behavior, you would see that with the decreased % of other areas that have traditionally held fish....this Old Orchard area would
rise to the forefront.....more crabs, sea bass, black fish, and other forage fish than ever before....divers will confirm this.....the area is loaded with bait for most of the year.....


**And...it is part of the pattern that has changed and allows some mis-informed folks, to think there are more bass, when closer observation reveals that not to be true.....

















If you only fish from a boat, you know the names of usual places that hold bass and other fish in Raritan Bay....
* Flynns knoll and Romer shoals (clam beds)
* Old Orchard (up to 300% in structure area since lighthouse was destroyed)
* Round Shoal, and the entrance area to the Arthur Kill
* Mount Loretto and the shipping channels that graze the SI shoreline there
* Great Kills Harbor and the bass waiting a short ride outside.....(and sometimes in the harbor itself)
* Navy Pier to Keyport / the Belford clam beds and other clam beds in that area (The Navy pier will often hold fish when they are scarce in other areas. The channels are the gateway into the bay for migrating fish....the clam beds in that area can be confirmed by a conversation with any commercial clammer.)


There are a few more...but my point is this....a good Capt knows when these areas are most productive, and why...
Anyone who wants fish from a boat, you know the names of usual places that hold bass and other fish in Raritan Bay....
A good Capt, if they concentrated on those areas mentioned above, and fish are in the bay area....would most likely catch one, if they really worked the above areas thoroughly....
Someone who claims there are more bass than ever before, without recognizing the changes mentioned..... is either:
ignorant, arrogantly in denial, or has a hidden financial incentive to mis-represent the status of the bass #s to folks out there.



To Recap, for the RB/ NY Bight area (generally speaking)

1. Less shoreline structure and feeding area since Sandy
2. Higher concentration of the same fish in the areas that do hold food, with some becoming more prominent than before.
3. Offshore migration theories hold no water here, as fish must enter the bays in similar ways every year and travel the same routes to spawn.
4. Notably less quantities of larger fish. (the 20# bass has become the new "Large" Bass)
5. Significant gaps in year classes of other sized fish.

There is so much mis-information out there I had to respond to someone yesterday and thought I would share.....

First of all...
"The water temp is too warm for the bass run to start"
"We are waiting for the fish from up North"
"We need a noreaster to spark up the action"
"The run in NJ hasn't even started yet, we have time"
"They are just a little late this year"

The above excuses/reasons were not valid 8 years ago, because there were more bass. In my experience, what we are seeing is
1. larger concentrations or pushes of bass,
2. with not a lot in between....
3. Similar conditions that existed before the Moratorium in the 80's.

I had this conversation the other night with a Monmouth County police officer, friend of mine, while I was out fishing, and he stopped me to see if I had any intel for him.......
I like this guy, he is a good and avid fisherman..:thumbsup:.....but he insisted that the bass were still "North of us, they just didn't get here yet".....

I felt that if he had this perception.....that others might have the same mis-perceptions as well.....










Below is a generalized response I gave to someone who was in Belmar Sunday, and said because he saw no fish being caught....that the fish hadn't arrived yet in Jersey...

1. NJ got it's first wave of migratory fish (around) Oct 3
...... 20-40lb bass. Quite a few were caught but many guys were unaware of the bite because the storms and bad weather prevented a lot of boats from getting out.
This was a large body of fish. There are some fish all the way down in Delaware now, and entering the Delaware bay, that came from the North .

2. This weekend we enjoyed another wave with surf caught bass to 32#.

3. Realistically speaking, the "run" is about half over.

4. Today there was another bass slaughter along NJ inshore waters...by tomorrow it should be reported on all the major web sites....
The sad thing to me, about some NJ Capts...is we are allowed to keep 3 bass per man....because of bonus tags.....and some Capts promote their businesses this way.......While the bass numbers have been steadily declining....

5. Fish as much as you can, we are right in the midst of the fall run of migratory fish.
Good luck, and hope you don't take my advice the wrong way, or as offensve, because that is not the way I mean.

6. As for the Chesapeake/Delaware Vs Hudson fish argument, sometimes it's hard to tell as these 2 strains mix together during the migratory period......

7. Again, the fish we have now, and had 3 weeks ago, did not primarily come from the Hudson/NY Bight...they came from North of you....there was a limited bite of big fish at the old Romer shoals and some HR channels areas this summer....These were limited quantities that stayed behind in part because of the abundant bait....









** Just wanted to state that Finchaser mentioned this as well....if someone can find his comments and post them here....I would appreciate it....Thanks for reading.....:HappyWave:

Was an all out slaughter today(10/27/14) all the head boats found them 1/2 to 1 mile off on the way in at 2pm with in an hour everyone on all boats limited out with 3 fish between 20 and 44 pounds. My friends on private boats caught them on jigs also as fast as you could reel them in they were all released.

This could be the grand finale as Montauk, block Island and Rhode Island are dead

the fish that went by up North came and went by us here in dixie, for the most part, with a few rogue fish that poked their noses in the inlets.

for every fish caught by boat around brigantine and absecon islands, there were probably 20 anglers or more who caught nothing, one fellow side by side a boat that brought up a 30+ fish.

there are a few residents and some smaller migrators in the back along the sods.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by surfrob

the fish that went by up North came and went by us here in dixie, for the most part, with a few rogue fish that poked their noses in the inlets.

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We had the same thing happen in great south bay. Every year they make a stop to feed inside for a few weeks. This year it's been like your local pond that overfilled with weeds and chokes the fish. Weeds weeds and more weeds. Great thread very helpful, thanks.