Honey the Striped Bass are Shrinking...How to Recognize the Signs

How about this for a sign. It's June and there have been very few bunker blitzes. Some for the boats but not many. You read about more guys who say they are having bad luck every day. The guys in the surf don't seem to be doing that well either. Heard of some blitzes but don't we usually have more by this time? I'm no pro but remember in the past few years it was on by mothers day and lasted until past fathers day. Where are the bass now? On vacation in Busch Gardens? Or are they really dead like finchaser says. I tend to believe finchaser and some of the other people who have been fishing for them for a long time. I can't add much except to say if there were so many of them a lot would be hooting and hollering now, and they arent.

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Originally Posted by cowherder

How about this for a sign. It's June and there have been very few bunker blitzes. Some for the boats but not many. .

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^ Yep, in NJ even the bunker blitzes weren't that frequent this year. Noteworthy point, cowherder, thanks for making it.



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Something I posted today.......
To further that thought, there is some science that should be accepted, such as YOY stats. These are taken in the same manner and areas each year. They are actual counts from seine samples, hard data.



What I like to call the "end result data", the stats that are used by the NOAA and ASMFC to calculate the entire size of the biomass, is where the problems lie. This is partly because they are taking a small sample size, and extrapolating it to cover an estimate of a whole population of bass. Anyone who has ever taken statistics knows that the smaller the sample size relative to the population of fish, the smaller the confidence interval will be, and the larger the potential statistical error will be,




**In short, it is not great and accurate science to measure fish this way.
(Yet, it is the only way of doing things right now,,,,and may not change unless we demand it to be looked at differently)

The regulatory bodies have already been proven wrong in their analysis in NJ by the SSFFF, which hired marine biologist to prove that the fluke projected biomass was not accurate. NOAA has already recognized some inefficiencies and is starting to ask for end user (fisherman) feedback.

**IMO the ASMFC is not really starting to examine the integrity of their data yet, because there are a lot of politics involved in that board,,,,it is not just about striped bass...they are heavily pressured by certain interest groups, and what we as fishermen see is what they want us to see...

In a similar way, there are a lot of us who feel that the striped bass biomass figures (the end result calculations, extrapolated from small sample sizes..the catch data....which is mostly accurate for commercials because of the stringent reporting, but not that accurate for recreationals because of sloppy reporting)......

is shrinking......not because we don't like statistics, but because we are out there, more than most..and that is what we see.....because of the time we spend on the water...and the logs we keep year after year...




Many of the veteran saltwater fishermen, fishing for more than a few decades, have noticed a decline in the past 5 years or so.

Unfortunately, regulatory boards don't feel adding the perspective of veteran fishermen with no agenda, to the board, would help the fishery....so we have a disconnect between what regulatory boards claim, and what many of us are actually seeing, and what I am seeing...

1 Less fish per trip
2. Plenty of bait inshore, but less fish on them.
3. Greater gaps in different year classes of fish.

Many of the saltwater fishermen who have decades of experience are noticing the similarities between the conditions that exist now...and the moratorium in the 1980's.....

A. There seemed to be plenty of big fish back then,,,
B. There were many areas where the fish seemed to be less plentiful, as is the case now...
C. The other areas, the fish were stacked up so tightly, there were those who discounted that there was any trouble with the bass stocks.
D. Then, as now, the scientific findings, and regulatory board did not catch up with what what was happening with the fishery, until it was too late.....and the stocks collapsed, resulting in a long slow road back to being rebuilt.


Awareness of this, would then perhaps cause some members to see that history is repeating itself.




Food for thought......http://www.noreast.com/discussion/im...ns/ubicon8.gif
I know talking about stats is boring, but the way some data is calculated, I thought some of the newer guys might not be aware of it...and it's important....http://www.noreast.com/discussion/images/smile.gif
Thanks for reading....

Further evidence that there are certain year classes of striped bass (particularly the smaller ones up to 28", corresponding to 1-7 year old fish) and the larger bass, (particularly the ones 35# and over)...that have large gaps, because these bass are no longer here in the numbers that used to exist, just a few short years ago:



Some comments on Montauk fishing, and the overall Quality of bass fishing from the surf at Montauk this year. For those who aren't aware...Montauk is an accepted bass migration highway....a stop on the migration trail.....when you can't find bass anywhere else, you can always find them at Montauk......
This was true 15-20 years ago, but as supported by the comments below, not true any longer, to the same extent......




I. Comment from someone who spends a good deal of every season camped out at Montauk....you would think if anyone could find bass up there, it would be someone who spends months at a time living in his camper out there...but this gentleman could not......I find his observations accurate and compelling. :thumbsup:

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Originally Posted by mr1surf

Back at you dark....
We do have to do something....

1. being on the beach in my camper from Memorial Day to thanksgiving, every weekend and knowing some good local contacts.....
2. fishing was DEAD on then north Side most of the year.....
3. a few nice fish in June and July....and you mostly had to go deep into the south side to get them.....
4. if it wasn't for the cocktails, there wouldnt be anything.....plenty of big fish in the rips at night.....but dead on the beach...

There are many reasons but one thing I noticed was when the cocktails took over and replaced the 5-8 blues years ago, in the summer, it changed.....it reminded me of fire island inlet with lots of cocktails and little else.....until the bass moved out ....while the boat guys did ok....

there was NO fall run at shagwon, north side!
but a couple weeks of good bass in on the sand beaches. this has become a regular pattern the last few years! well before Sandy.

A. I have never fished so many nights on the north side and struck out....in my wetsuit?
B. there was always a summer residency of bass there.....not anymore.....just a few thoughts...

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II. Most know who Willie Young is...for the benefit of those who don't.....he is one of the most celebrated Montauk surfcasters, been fishing the Salt in and around LI for over 50 years....I would think that if there were fish to be found, Willie would be able to find them.....:thumbsup:....he's the one quoted below......

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Originally Posted by willyyoung

Also the big bass that were on the sand in the daylight hours in the summer. Gone.
Willie

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"Gone" as in meaning that they do not show up any more in the numbers that they used to, going back 10 years and more.....
Food for thought......thanks for reading.....

Time to revisit this thread....thanks for all the opinions thus far.....:HappyWave:

Surfstix was kind enough to post this video once here..:thumbsup:.....I couldn't seem to find it so I'm posting it again....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cc8bCOOfFs4


feel free to add with new experiences this year.....

I really like watching bill wetzel speak. Man speaks from the heart, thanks for sharing.

Those that do not remember the past, are condemned to repeat it.