S&A Education Series: Understanding back bay bait migration and fishing patterns

[DarkSkies]

I wanted to add a little to this.
I was thinking that Sunday's Harvest moon would have cleared the bay area (Raritan and Barnegat) out of mullet and peanuts.

Did some scouting on the way home after last trip and found this to not be exactly true.
There are many areas that no longer hold bait, so this bay migration to the ocean is happening, albeit a little at a time.

It seems the Barnegat Bay and similar areas have dumped their mullet out faster.
Evidence of this is in the surf line at IBSP and LBI, where you can see steady schools of mullet and the little blues are all over them.

However, this has not happened to as great an extent in Monmouth County...the mullet presence in the surf line there is noticably lighter. At least it was to me when i scouted these areas.








The important thing to note is that the Raritan Bay and NY Bight area is still holding a tremendous amount of bait, spearing, rainfish, mullet, 5" peanut bunker, spot/lafayette, and small porgies, blackfish, and seabass. Even some adult bunker as well.

This is only a hypothesis, but....
I look for this bait to stick around awhile, possibly exiting around Columbus Day...or sooner if a severe storm system develops.

If you can do some scouting and know what to look for, you might find some good fish.
All the legal fish and bigger blues I have found so far have been tight to the largest bait concentrations.

[cowherder]

This thread really makes you think when you go out there. I probably don't do scoutiing near as much as you do dark but I have started to look in the harbors. It is like an adventure, you are right. Thanks

[DarkSkies]

It's pretty apparent to me that the affects from Sandy have altered the fall 2012 striped bass migration.

As Fin and others have mentioned, much of that migration has been offshore. As a result the boats fishing inshore, and the surf guys, have not had a great fall, post-Sandy, thus far.
Just noting it here for the records.


There are several key things that put a hole in our expectations of a bite returning...

1. The bait being flushed out from everywhere was probably at the top of the list. We haven't had a fall "flush out" of that nature in decades.

2. The noreaster that developed one week later was a crushing blow to some of the good action that remained. This, coupled with the harsh north winds, drastically dropped the temps in most bay and river areas. The fish that some of us are seeing up North, could be the Hudson fish that got flushed out of the Bight and Bays....these are small fish that traditionally we don't see till the end of the run. Figuring which are Hudson, and which are others, is sometimes difficult.

3. Now, some bait and fish have moved back closer to shore, but the extreme amounts of bait that held them in prior falls is just not there.

4. This is a reminder that all years are slightly different, and a good fisherman understands that.

5. The Shining Star for fishing success this fall was the Delaware Bay. It seems right after the storm a greater amount of bass than usual streamed into that bay, and guys enjoyed a fantastic fishery for a few weeks. I feel that's because of the food. Delaware Bay was loaded with adult and peanut bunker in the deepwater channels. Perhaps to a greater extent than many other areas.

6. There is talk now about a spike up in activity as herring are now inshore, and in some cases have come in very close. Sandeels finally made an appearance as well on some of the beaches in the LBI area.. I'm glad to see and hear of that. However, IMO. the predominant forage for the past week has been the rainfish. These fish can move greater distances in a short period of time than the sandeels. Therefore, I'm happy to hear of the catches, but still not optimistic that we will have a sustained bite.

7. IMO even the boat guys are getting scattered catches, and mostly pulling numbers by trolling....this is another indication of how few fish there are out there. Addiitionally, there are large pods of rainfish with no bass on them at all, another indication of the lack of numbers of bass left in the NY Bight and NJ areas other than southernmost NJ.

Hope springs eternal in the minds of the fishermen.
I have learned over the years, that many guys go fishing not specifically to catch, but for a need to be out there....that's part of the reason I'm out there as well.






**Remember that as with many things in life, the fishing can turn on, or off, quite quickly...when you hear fish are being caught, it's probably a good idea to make it a priority to go out and get one...

[DarkSkies]

3. Now, some bait and fish have moved back closer to shore, but the extreme amounts of bait that held them in prior falls is just not there.

4. This is a reminder that all years are slightly different, and a good fisherman understands that.


6. However, IMO. the predominant forage for the past week has been the rainfish. These fish can move greater distances in a short period of time than the sandeels. Therefore, I'm happy to hear of the catches, but still not optimistic that we will have a sustained bite.

7. IMO even the boat guys are getting scattered catches, and mostly pulling numbers by trolling....this is another indication of how few fish there are out there. Addiitionally, there are large pods of rainfish with no bass on them at all, another indication of the lack of numbers of bass left in the NY Bight and NJ areas other than southernmost NJ.

I highlighted this area, again, Some folks out there are saying we will have bass throughout the Winter in certain NNJ beach areas because of the proximity to the NY Bight and that the Hudson fish are the ones that will be around all winter.....This is just not accurate... although I'm not trying to offend, as some saying this are friends of mine....


What I feel happened was during the last 2 weeks, there was a window for the bass to go back into the NY Bight and the Hudson Winter holding areas....and they did....the temp chart below supports this and shows when it was possible.........






If you look closely you can see that there were points where the temp in the NY Bight was in the mid 40's, which I believe would be the trigger for these fish to return to the NY Bight and Hudson Winter staging areas......

These occurences have been small windows, but these temp windows are extremely important.

[DarkSkies]

Differences from 2011....

Again, not looking to slam on what others are saying, just to point out that some of them don't fish that often. As some of the research they are posting is a few years old, it doesn't come from actual experience. Some of the experts who make predictions out there spend very little time on the water......

There is a group of anglers here, on the other hand, who are out there all the time.....they see things as they actually unfold....and not as prescribed in a scientific paper somewhere........



***That's one of the reasons when the members here talk about the decline in bass, while others are putting up 1 year of promising YOY stats, which purportedly shows that bass are healthy, you have to take those kinds of proclamations with a grain of salt.

Bear in mind that these are not just my predictions. The old salts know all this as they talk about it obsessively. If there are any subtle changes from one year to the next, they discuss it ad infinitum...







Really, who better to assess the health of the striped bass fishery than old salts who fish every chance they get?

[DarkSkies]

Anyway, these are the differences, so far, that differentiate last year from this year......
And the folks reading this should remember that I'm not a scientist, just a realist who might fish a little too much.....


1. 2011... the temperature inversion described in the post above was much more severe.
2. There was a tremendous amount of bait in the Mud Hole, Shrewsbury rocks, and several rocks areas within 1 mile of much of the Monmouth County coastline.

3. The 2011 replenishment dredging also brought up thousands of whitelegger crabs, which made their new home on the beach cuts, structure, and particularly the jetty and rocky shoreline areas......these whiteleggers joined with the Asian shore crabs to make each rocky area a feeding station.

4. Crab Molts....There were regular molts of these crabs, the scent of which brought the bass in during these molts. This was a special aberration. Crabs usually molt once a month, but during the Winter of 2011 ....I documented them molting twice a month. It was unreal. At times it was a feeding frenzy. Some friends were able to catch as many as 50 bass a night on the key molting nights.

5. Since the storm Sandy, there have not been any crabs in these jetty areas. They are all gone. There are addtional tiny mole crabs in the surf, but that is not enough to sustain large populations of "over-wintering" bass...it just isn't.

6. The sandeels that many were hoping for are now only to be found in a few areas, as mentioned.

7. There are herring and squid, but not in the quantities that were around last year. The rainfish, as mentioned, are too mobile to be considered to hold fish in one area consistently. Some winter spearing have shown up, but chiefly in back bay areas and rivers. (far too late for the fish in many areas to find them) and feed on them, with the notable exception of some South Jersey bay areas.

8. Simply put, the temperature inversion, and the abundant bait, kept the large bodies of fish out in the surf zone for the winter of 2011...the first time in about 7 years that things lined up like that....it was an alliance of all these perfect condtions that kept the fish in that general area.

9. In 2012, so many of these pieces are lacking, it is not logical to assume that this would happen again, in the same way.

10. This is one of the reasons why I am so obsessive about forage....if the food is there, there are bound to be fish looking to eat...no food and they will go somewhere else.......
Also, as Fin has pointed out so many times, if the water temps are too cold they will tend to move on as well.

11. Based on the lack of forage and the temp spikes in the past 2 weeks, I and some others believe the bulk of the Hudson bass made their way back to the Bay/River/Harbor holding areas.....there may still be some bass around...but the numbers we were seeing in the first 2 weeks of Dec 2012 are just not there anymore....

[DarkSkies]

This is confirmed by people we know who were clam fishing and could catch 25 bass in a matter of a few hours....even the robustness of the clam bite has slowed down substantially...giving further evidence that the fish that some claim are there.....are not....

I realize I am a bit more obsessive about these things than some others out there...For me it makes sense...if I'm going to spend the gas and tolls to get to the water I want to know if the fish are there, and most importantly, why.....so my extensive logs and attention to detail has really helped me to find more fish ....this is something anyone could do, if they just put in the effort......








**I hope I make it clear to folks reading this, that I am not a scientist, or claim to be an expert on this subject. I am someone who has become obsessive about why the fish are there. i'm constantly learning new things and trying out different versions to challenge my findings....and also very grateful to the legions of old timers on here and elsewhere who have been kind enough to share their views with me.......


Thanks for reading, and hope this explains things a little better......

[DarkSkies]

Late summer transitions.......


My logs show late summer bluefish (other than the snappers) start to load back into the bay during the last 2 weeks of August....this has been a fairly consistent pattern......but it also depends on water temperatures lowering a bit, and the gathering of small and larger baits....this Post Sandy year has been slightly different for a lot of back bay areas that usually see more activity at night.


The exciting thing about this for me.... is that it's been my experience that the more bluefish that fill a bay or river/creek system or area, the better the bass activity becomes.
Bass can sometimes be lazy feeders and stay on the perimeter when bluefish start to make their end of day runs into the bay looking to harass the growing pods of different bait.

The best fall times for me, have been end of day, and deep in the night.....I have found that lack of boat traffic in an area is a key factor if you are looking to find this type of activity....one of the few exceptions being that if the bait is extremely thick and concentrated in an area, the predators may be less affected by the boat traffic and feed anyway....

This can be exciting to find in late summer water that is seemingly dead, or filled with predictable summer residents like small fluke, sea robins, croakers, and spot......one trip you will be out there....and after a long absence, say to yourself........"Wow where did all these bluefish come from?"
The more likely scenarion is they were there before you thought they were, but gravitating to areas of highest bait concentration.....

As mentioned, the water temps tend to have an affect, in my experience, on how the angler will perceive the bite to be......as the bay temps drop into the 70's and start to trend downward, I have found those temps to be ideal for marauding packs of bluefish, weakfish, and later on....bass.

[DarkSkies]

So many fishermen concentrate on the ocean this time of year, waiting for the fish to "load up" and become more apparent, near the jetties and inlets.....
That's a great strategy if you are
1. targeting fluke, which by this time are starting to move from the back bay flats into deeper water anyway...
2. or targeting sharks...

However, if you are targeting any of the other species mentioned above......my best experience for consistent late summer action has been in the back bay areas and sod banks.
Whether you are fishing bait or artificials this time of year...the amount of juvenile baitfish in the back, simply dwarfs the scattered amount you will find in the surfline , and as such presents a compelling reason (for me) to exploit every known concentration of back bay bait, to see if there are fish on them.







There were years in the past, that I did not leave the back bay areas to fish the ocean until the end of October (Columbus Day)...the fishing was that good, and there were enough nights with double digit catches of bass and blues to the teens to make it worthwhile....

**Unfortunately, that pattern has changed for me. I am finding less bass overall as part of a decline I have seen in the past 8 years...hence the reason for me moving around more.....the point I'm trying to make here, is that for the next 6-8 weeks, speaking strictly of Jersey waters, the back bays will be more productive for those who understand tides, structure, and bait patterns....

Understand these patterns, the limited feeding windows common to the back bays, and what sparks fish to feed....and you will manage to find some exciting action out there at night.

[DarkSkies]

I reviewed this thread as I copied the above posts into it from another thread today.....
I have gotten a few PMs and texts lately that seem to be overly concerned about the fall run...

When will it start?
will it be as robust this year as last year?,,,,
will there be differences based on the damage and repurcussions from Sandy?...
Will the fish hold in an area, or move down the coast quickly?

So I thought I would answer in this thread...
In my experience, every year is certainly different....

But if you keep a log, there are some patterns that seem to hold year after year.
Some may be weeks different from the year before because of seasonal weather or temperature patterns.
Some may be different because of different bait migrational patterns.

Some may be different because of storm or severe weather patterns....
In some area, a severe storm, and new or full moon blowout tides can clear more than half the bait out of an area.....









** These are only my experiences....and they may not be the same as others...
There are a lot of great anglers here as members,,,,,,,,your feedback and observations have helped make this site what it is....

Feel free to add to this thread when necessary...I'm sure our junior members could learn a lot from your perspectives......

[buckethead]

But if you keep a log, there are some patterns that seem to hold year after year.
Some may be weeks different from the year before because of seasonal weather or temperature patterns.
Some may be different because of different bait migrational patterns.

Some may be different because of storm or severe weather patterns....
In some area, a severe storm, and new or full moon blowout tides can clear more than half the bait out of an area.....
Feel free to add to this thread when necessary...I'm sure our junior members could learn a lot from your perspectives......

I don't remember if I saw it in this thread dark but it's time to talk about mullet. I don't think this years mullet run will prove to be as stellar as last years. They are still important. Finally started running down the beach consistently. My log from last year shows this migration is off about a week. Make no mistake they are ini the surf now. Hopefully things should get better from now on. Fishing has been pretty spotty for me so far.

[DarkSkies]

Let's talk about all the worms, crabs, shrimp, and tiny creatures that represent the beginning of life, and the basic food source for all others.

These smallest sources of bait, worms, small grass shrimp, and the spearing that take up residence in most back bays and estuaries, have been notably thin this year.....fishermen all along the Eastern Coast, and major Sound and Estuary areas have been lamenting this all Spring and Summer.

1. Specifically, areas that were hardest hit by hurricane Sandy last year seem to be most affected.

2. Those that do find this forage, seem to think that the populations are sparser. For example, you can't even get local spearing in some areas.

3. It's been my experience that these small creatures are the key to sustained life in many areas. Though there is a lot of fanfare about larger forage like mullet and bunker, I have seen time and time again, that the areas holding the smaller bait, are the areas that consistently hold fish.

I don't remember if I saw it in this thread dark but it's time to talk about mullet. I don't think this years mullet run will prove to be as stellar as last years.

I agree, Buckethead.
**I'll come back to talk about bunker and mullet when I get a chance.
In the meantime, would appreciate the thoughts of others here as to your findings when scouting bait, and how you feel it will affect this year's Bass Migration.

[buckethead]

1. Specifically, areas that were hardest hit by hurricane Sandy last year seem to be most affected.

2. Those that do find this forage, seem to think that the populations are sparser. For example, you can't even get local spearing in some areas.

3. It's been my experience that these small creatures are the key to sustained life in many areas. Though there is a lot of fanfare about larger forage like mullet and bunker, I have seen time and time again, that the areas holding the smaller bait, are the areas that consistently hold fish.

Definitely agree with that DS. Earlier in the year the grass shrimp were nowhere to be found. Now you can see some but it could take another year for them to get back to where they were. As for the small spearing types I have run into large schools of rain fish., but hardly any big schools of spearing.

[J Barbosa]

The storm had a huge impact on bait but something I have noticed prior to the storm is that the sod banks are slowly disappearing in NJ.

As fishing has become more popular in general and more people are fishing earlier and later into each season it is putting a hurting on all the sod!

These are critical to all of the bait Dark mentioned and serve many more purposes including water quality. How many times have you heard fisherman (myself included) complain that the water in the RB is stained badly this year. Almost a full year later are we still blaming this on nutrient runoff from Sandy?

Remember that those sod banks use to hold thousands of muscles that are filter feeders. As the muscles feed they clean the water and also provide a food source for other animals including stripers.

The sod banks themselves are also natures water filters. As the tide lowers the water gets filtered through the roots and any contaminents/sediment is then trapped in those roots.

Don't believe me??? Search some of the research papers on what use to be one of the two most polluted rivers in the country: The Passaic and the Hackensack Rivers.

The Passaic river is still very polluted while the Hackensack has made a huge comeback thanks to its huge marshes covered in sod.

They have credited most of the Hackensack Rivers comeback to the sod banks that line the large marshes.

I have to blame most of the sod banks disappearance on the shore bound anglers (myself included) because thats where the sod banks are disappearing. If you look at the areas where the sod banks still thrive they are difficult/impossible to access on foot.

Look at what has happened in the raritan bay there are practically no sod banks left on the NJ side until you move into the shallow marshes where fisherman don't fish. Lawrence Harbor to Union Beach use to be loaded and if you walk those beaches now there is little "small" bait left.

[storminsteve]

I have to blame most of the sod banks disappearance on the shore bound anglers (myself included) because thats where the sod banks are disappearing. If you look at the areas where the sod banks still thrive they are difficult/impossible to access on foot.

Look at what has happened in the raritan bay there are practically no sod banks left on the NJ side until you move into the shallow marshes where fisherman don't fish. Lawrence Harbor to Union Beach use to be loaded and if you walk those beaches now there is little "small" bait left.

Great points here. Especially where you are talking about Union beach a lot of guys used to fish the sand beaches on either side. Now check it out it is eroded in many places at least thats what I can remember from the spring. Most of the fishermen now are wading those creeks and walking wherever they want. I never really thought of that.

[hookset]

The spearing, rainfish, and grass shrimp are the glue that holds the bay and surf bite together. You can add sandeels to that too but they are not always around. Keep a good log and you know you can count on grass shrimp every year. The basic food group of most all predators. I agree the grass shrimp and spearing took a hard hit from Sandy. This has made fishing in some back bay spots a crap shoot.

Yesterday I got into a decent surf bluefish bite. The thing bringing them in close was the rainfish. Without them they could have stayed offshore.

Does anyone remember when we used to have the rainfish invasions? Massive amounts, so many the water would be dark and purple. They would run along the surf line in the Spring and then stay in the bay channels until June. Then they would come back around Sept and stay until November. We would have nights in the surf where bass and bluefish were cruising with there mouths open, filling up with rainfish and spearing. That hasn't happened in quite a few years to my recollection.

[DarkSkies]

^^ This is something I wrote today in response to a question about fall fishing....some of it probably applies to this thread so I'll park it here:



Excuses I have read for the Poor Fall Fishing so far in 2013.....
1. "We are suffering some effects from Sandy"....Yes I will agree with those who want to blame it on that,,,But how reasonable is it to blame it ALL on Sandy?

2. "The back bay bait population has suffered"....Yes I will agree and have seen it and had many discussions with others about it.

3. "All the fish are offshore", that's why the inshore and surf guys are not seeing them....Yes, valid point but only partially....there are always bass migrating offshore.......one big difference this year is that it seems a lot of us are now becoming more vocal about what we see, and trying to fit it into some notions of migration based on past seasonal patterns....

In my experience, it's harder to figure a pattern because the overall mass of fish is thinner...
Guys hear about a giant concentration of bass, off the SS of LI...not realizing that when conditiions are right.......they have been so thick they have been at other areas along the migration highway as well.....

4. "Big bodies of bass still in MA and Rhody"...Yes, but in counting on those fish....many folks fail to take into account, that many of those fish historically stage in the Eastern Sound before migration along different paths....
a. a certain % of those will winter in the Ct rivers......I have friends who are able to catch them all winter....
b. Another portion will run W in the Sound, down the E River, to enter the NY Bight area....many of the Central and S Jersey fishermen will never see or get to experience those fish.....

[fishinmission78]

We got killed on the grass shrimp this year. it was like they became extinct.

[DarkSkies]

Recap......

The forage was a little unusual this year....
Traditionally it's bunker, and rainfish.....

Some of ya's might be able to remember Spring seasons 8-10 years ago when there was a much richer forage base.....
1. The Winter and Spring spearing....
2. Spring rainfish that came through the channels and points...
3. The ever present grass shrimp......
4. Herring, both freshwater and sea herring....
5. Hickory shad.....
6. Spring sand eel runs.....(yes there were quite a few years they did come in regularly in the late spring)
7. Cinder worms
8. Grass shrimp



This Spring, (Generally Speaking) fro the NNJ area, it was all about the
A. Bunker....
B. then some herring came into the back to spawn in the rivers...
C. We also had these "medium" shrimp....I call them this, because some of them were 3-5 times larger than the largest grass shrimp we normally see....another species of shrimp.....Some of the old timers remarked they hadn't seen shrimp that size in years
D. Spearing and rainfish have not shown up in many NNJ areas until recently.....
E. 2 brief cinder worm spawns so far.


More about the forage patterns here
http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...shing-patterns

The fly fishermen who knew of this, and could take advantage, did pretty well at times.....

For the most part, for those fishing from land...the fish were on the bottom....a few times in the ocean and bays they were caught by topwater presentation...but for the most part, tight to the bottom....a distinctive early cold water pattern for bass, weakfish, and bluefish........

[DarkSkies]

This is some advice I gave today back channel to one of our newer members.
I don't want to be as specific as I was with him, so I edited it a bit for posting here.....

Right now - 9-11-14- Advice for Fishing Artificials that Catch....NNJ

1. You can't go wrong with fishing a bucktail/rubber or BT/pork right now.
Rubber would be good too but will get chopped by the bluefish.

2. Fish, if any, are down and deep as the bait that was around 2 weeks ago has really thinned out.

3. If you have plugs, try some 5" or less..., SP minnows (or smaller) white or yellow, or small bombers with shiny foil blue colors or white with red heads, the best mullet representations out there....

4. TEASERS are a MUST as most of the forage is 3" or less, but tough to fish when weeds are in the water.

5. You cannot throw those small plugs in rough water though...Poppers would work at first light in the ocean when mullet run the coast as they are doing now.
6. As I said most of the mullet have cleared out of our back bays, not only here, but raritan river, shark river, and barnegat bay and manasquan river - they are 90% gone already, except for the new schools that may come in at night to rest from up north.

7. Your window to fish the ocean is the first half hour before and after first light every day, or the last 2 hours before dark at and of day.
If you can find a few mullet you will find fish at those times.

8. Pickings are very slim right now. No one who is fishing from shore now is catching more than a few, if that many.Party boat just started catching in the channels, What few bass there are, are either scattered, or deep and on the bottom

9. And...this is the best of it, right now IMO, this full moon weekend....By Monday if no more bait arrives,, it could get worse,,,,as we traditionally every year go into an October waiting period until some resident bass start to move into the usual places by the mid to 3rd week of october...and we will start to see a small portion of the migrating bass......

































** Remember that during the Fall, bait migration is very dynamic and unpredictable. Capt Al reported 28# bass being caught in the surf outside of SRI as of Sept 7. Within 24 hours those fish were gone, together with most of the mullet and small baitfish that were in Shark River and the creeks back there.

Similar occurrences in the Barnegat Bay and Manasquan Rivers and inlet, and Shrewsbury/Navesink Rivers and SH Bay....the amount of bait in those areas is now a shadow of what it was 2 weeks ago...
If you fish at night you would know that....

All that can change on a moment's notice....one of our members reported netting a good amount of 6" mullet this morning...which will probably not be there this afternoon.....

The important thing to note here....
is "musical chairs"...
The term I use to describe fall bait behavior where the bait that was holding empties out of an area completely...what you are left with is transitional patterns, if any, as bait jumps in your area or bay to take refuge from the various Fall weather systems....

In my experience, this usually doesn't happen in many areas until Columbus Day....but for 2014 this has happened very early, more than a month early....and may significantly affect your chances of catching fish from land this Fall.

That's why, IMO, when there is no or little bait, you can either
A. sit it out.....wait for better fishing in November....
B. Or when you learn of bait in an area,....or see it on a scouting trip...make a commitment to fishing that area aggressively until that bait is no longer there....







With all the talk about the early mullet run this year, I thought some folks might like to read this, and add any thoughts they may have....