Striped Bass and the Apple Tree?

[DarkSkies]

There are threads on the internet equating the striped bass population to a bowl of M&Ms......

That's a great analogy....
And was thought of years ago by a guy I once knew...I think his name was Dave, but memory escapes me at times....

[DarkSkies]

The thing is, there are a lot of newer anglers out there.....

They may not accept that as relevant.
Although, if you don't agree, and want to learn about it, feel free to click on these threads and things could become more clearer to you.


M&M theory is explained in post 45 of this thread
http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...ped-Bass/page3

[DarkSkies]

There is also a thread here where we talk about what is happening to the striped bass today, here and now......

http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...rvation-Corner

[DarkSkies]

There have been some obstacles to reaching folks over the years......I do a lot of thinking and talking with older anglers about this, and we seem to be in agreeement in the following areas.....

1. Many more people are fishing for striped bass than a decade ago.

2. More from the surf, more from boats, and also commercial charters and head boats.

3. There are a lot of anglers who have only recently started fishing saltwater, like in the last 5 years.....
When we talk about something that happened 2 or 3 decades ago, how can they be expected to relate to that?
........after much thinking, I realized they cannot be expected to know what happened 30, 20, or even 10 years ago......it may too much to expect from a guy who only goes fishing once a week, or once a month, or only a few times a season...

4. Many new anglers out there, just don't have this depth of perspective...and that's not their fault, it's how it is......

5. Realizing this, there are several discussions popping up every winter on internet saltwater forums.....many good opinions and seasoned perspectives....

6. Unfortunately, some of us are so passionate about our beliefs...that these discussions sometimes promote judging of others and finger pointing....If one side had no understanding, they are called "meat men"......and the other side is called "PETA freaks"

7. The sad thing is that we are all fishermen, we all need to learn to fish together and share in this precious resource that we love to fish for....our striped bass....and yes I say "Our" because they do belong to all of us......they are a shared resource where regulations coast-wide are not consistent....naturally that will cause hard feelings between people who live in different states....

8. To top it all off, as has been mentioned here many times before...the other fish that fishermen fish for....sea bass, blackfish, fluke, flounder, redfish, etc, have all had their seasons restricted or size limits raised, and catch limits lowered, over the past 5 years....putting tremendous pressure on the striped bass fishery....
Coupled with the fact there are some Capts and fishermen who continue to target them when the season is closed..or fish in restricted areas beyond the 3 mile limit.....is it any wonder many seasoned anglers are grumbling that they are catching less striped bass overall?

[DarkSkies]

* You can learn some of this going to regular fisheries management meetings for your area...I know...boooooring.....

* You can also learn by talking to Charter Capts and finding one who will give you an honest take on the numbers he is getting for the last 5-8 years.

* You can also talk to old-timers who lived through the Striped Bass Moratorium....
but if you just started fishing,,,who cares about the Moratorium?

....and what do the Old Timers know....that would benefit me?

[DarkSkies]

I think the last 2 questions above are the general consensus of a lot of anglers out there.....
Many don't care, or are too busy to care......I can understand that.......

Why should folks be worried about a Moratorium that happened 30 years ago?
What relevance does that have to today?

[DarkSkies]

When it comes to paying attention to these issues....the truth is....it's damn boring!

I get that....and find that apathy in many areas in life when I try to get fishermen involved......


The thing is, every year we notice less and less big fish caught....
The OGB is fond of saying....."Striped bass are not like Doritos, you just can't make more!"

I think that's a great assessment....and really wish folks would pay attention when he says that.....

[DarkSkies]

Some simple truths........

1. We are closer now to a moratorium than we have ever been in the last 30 years since striped bass were rebuilt.

2. As mentioned, more pressure on striped bass than ever before with closures in many other fisheries.

3. A stubborn refusal of a large group of anglers to recognize there is anything wrong at all...let me clarify this...although many more today are thinking about striped bass as a renewal resource, and this mindset is growing.....There are some who have a selfish mentality of "I'm gettng mine, leave me alone" ...some folks only fish certain areas at certain times of the year, and thus they would not be able to see the big picture.....

4. The decline of YOY stats.....
These YOY stats..scientific measures of Young of the Year in the main spawning areas.... have been discussed here before.....I imagine some folks are bored as hell hearing about it......Some say the figures are BS.....nonetheless, we have to have some benchmark to measure the bass by......

[DarkSkies]

There is also another thread called.."Honey the Striped Bass are Shrinking"

http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...nize-the-Signs

I realize in the above post I'm telling you folks out there that we have to have some belief in numbers...that is true.....




The thing about the YOY stats,,,,they are actual, real, raw data. collected under strict statistical sampling guidelines. One thing I remember about statistics in college is that the larger the sample size is, the more likely your data will be accurate.

As the sample size increases, your confidence in the projections will increase. Google confidence interval/ Statistical degree of confidence if you want to learn more....

With a smaller sample size, there will be a lesser degree of confidence.....

[DarkSkies]

What some folks may not understand about the striped bass biomass, is that the biomass calculations come in part from the YOY data set collected from the estuaries........

In rough numbers, let's say there are 10 milliion bass, which is sometimes the number claimed to be the biomass on the entire Eastern Seaboard

* That includes all bass from the Hudson, Chesapeake, and Delaware River strains of bass...with some other factoring thrown in for the ones in the rivers of CT and NJ where some bass spend all winter. Scientists don't really feel these other areas are statistically meaningful, so as I understand it the numbers are sometimes lumped together..


* For the sake of discussion, if you use 10 million as the biomass, you would need to realize that 10 million is extrapolated from a relatively minor sample size of the YOY stats....so you take a couple thousand, even hundred thousand small fry.....and eventually come up with a number of 10 million......to me that's a great strain on the accepted statistical principles....as I tried to explain, the sample size is way to small......The thread Honey The Striped Bass are Shrinking referenced above should explain it a little better....





**Feel free to comment on either thread if you have questions......

[dogfish]

When it comes to paying attention to these issues....the truth is....it's damn boring!

I get that....and find that apathy in many areas in life when I try to get fishermen involved......


The thing is, every year we notice less and less big fish caught....
The OGB is fond of saying....."Striped bass are not like Doritos, you just can't make more!"

I think that's a great assessment....and really wish folks would pay attention when he says that.....

X2. The last 5 years I have been a steady decline here. Go to Maine and it's even worse. You can still get fish but mostly schoolies. Those SC videos are accurate as well. Wetzel is talking about the range of bass. He said someone asked him the question if the striped bass are so healthy how come they have not expanded their range? The guides in Maine will tell you the range is shrinking.
Bass summer as far north as Nova Scotia. Ask the folks up there how well they are doing each year. Even worse.

I have read many of finchasers post over the years. both here and on other sites. You can tell he speaks from the heart and love of the sport. Thank you finchaser.