A few thoughts, thanks to intel provided by Finchaser, and some other of the old timers, who have feelers out for all kinds of fishing, and have a handle on what is where, so good, that it's almost like when bait is around, or a big fish gets caught....they know about it that day..... Thank God for the old-timers and their memories....you younger folks could learn a lot from them...I have......
1. Last year a lot of fish were sustained offshore, beyond 3 miles, by sand eels, squid, anchovies, sardines, and herring.....
2. This year the forage base has changed.....the big bluefish that have been out at the reefs and close inshore points, have been feeding on sardines, and squid, as their chief forage base.
3. According to the old timer intel, these sand eels that had been so abundant, moreso than in several years, have not shown yet, even at these closer offshore spots.
4. When you have lobstermen and commercial fishermen all giving you the same intel, ya might want to listen to what they have to say....
5.Therefore, as we say we are "waiting for the sand eels" to come in....it may not happen this year.
6. Or it may not happen to the extent and with the robustness that it has happened in recent years.
7. I am hoping that proves not to be true. However, I have been around long enough to see the cause and effect of much great fishing directly related to the amount of bait in the water....and simply put, if those sand eels don't come in, the 2012 Fall fishing at Sandy Hook and IBSP could prove to be a bust.
8. Right now, with sand eels being found nowhere offshore that these fishermen are fishing....it looks like it might happen that way....and Fall surf fishing could be poor. If the sand eels don't show uo, the late fishing will be driven by bunker, and possibly herring.....which could take surf fishing out of the equation, making a boat necessary to chase the fish on the bunker....
I hope this proves not to be true....conditions can always change for the better....
But as of now I am not counting on those sand eels showing up....