2016 Winter thoughts.......

I have a feeling that a Winter bite could last in the ocean, for longer than usual this year. My thoughts about that come from the way the bait has migrated this year. There are several factors, I'll post about just a few of them for now:

1. Bunker migration - usually, adult bunker, and predators follow a general path of moving as the water temps drop.

2. Bunker numbers have increased dramatically so folks are seeing them in greater ranges than before. Also, peanut bunker are still around and in some of the back bays and rivers in NJ and NY. There are still great quantities of bait in some areas of the LI Sound. There are still a great deal of bunker, and some larger bass in NY Harbor.

3. Those baitfish..the ones that do migrate....will likely be moving South, as water temps drop to move them.
Additionally, some striped bass will move up the Hudson.
It's hard to determine exactly what group the fish belong to. I believe we are in similar conditions to late season 2011.

4. Therefore, there will be groups of predators following them (albeit scattered and inconsistent in numbers)

5. This could provide an ocean bite, for much longer than has been the case in recent past years, approaching the Winter bite we had in the 2011-2012 Winter. There are a lot of variables to these possibilities here, winter storms, weather patterns, and severe drop in ocean temps could bring this to a halt in a few days.

6. Herring. AKA Atlantic Sea Herring- for many years, folks became excited when herring came in to inlets and certain riverhead areas in Late Fall and Winter. This was pointless..... because most bass and predators were gone that late in the year. This year is different, and actually seems to be one where the abundant herring could hold some fish for awhile. Those who keep logs, should go back and search herring patterns. If we're lucky they could be repeated this year.

7. With the biomass being less, it seems there are less striped bass on the edges. There aren't enough of them for masses to move directly along the coast and deliver a bite that's as consistent as many of us remember in the past.
The blitzes that used to last for days, now last for an hour. Blink, and if you can't race to the action, you will have missed it.

8. Bait dilemma - In any case, most seasoned anglers know that there is much more bait than these lesser numbers of fish..... could ever eat. The largest masses of fish are often coming through the Mud Hole, as Finchaser and others have pointed out so many times in the past. Right now certain areas slightly offshore are filled with squid, butterfish, and other baitfish.












** All this could change in an instant, with a week or so of bad weather.

If such a bite does develop and folks don't want to telegraph it to the world, you can be selective about how you post, or post in the Winter Fishing thread instead. Regular contributors here should have no problem finding that thread. Any members who want clarification of that, feel free to PM me any time.
I completely understand the limited access issues, and support those who feel the same way about limiting disclosure.
Thanks, and good luck out there.