Stripers & Anglers Education Series: Understanding Spring/ Fall Bass Migration for NJ/NY

[DarkSkies]

2012 Bass Migration

This thread was conceived due to the unusual Winter we had in the NJ/LI area.
We had a series of events which kept bass from their usual migration paths.

I thought some folks would be interested in hearing they Why's and What's that makes this Spring Migration different.

Feel free to jump in with opinions, even if they are different from the ones stated here...

Or if you have anything you're not sure you understand, feel free to ask...



As always, I'm deeply grateful for the folks along the NE Coast who send me reports, many of which are never posted here. And the daily conversations I have with a circle of Veteran Fishermen, Old-Timers who are obsessive about analyzing the details (Hey, they're retired a lot of them...gives them something to do.... )
Regardless... they help I and some others, to get a clearer picture, of Why the fish are Where they are for a particular moment in time....

[DarkSkies]

For starters, we already have a thread that addresses the Coastal Bass Migration started by Jigfreak.
Feel free to take a look if you're interested in learning some things about this amazing Migration...

http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...iper+migration

[DarkSkies]

Striped Bass Migration as it Applies to the East Coast

Three main bodies of striped bass are the most closely followed by scientists.

They are said to comprise the largest % of the Total Estimated Biomass, which is the total amount of Striped Bass that Fisheries Scientists "think" is out there.

These Biomass figures are derived from Sampling YOY (Year of the Young) catch averages (Sample Size).


This process begins with a series of yearly Seine Net Hauls.
In these Seine Net Hauls, the YOY (Year of the Young) Stripers are counted, and the results of several Statistically significant areas are compiled.

Then, by using Statistical Methods of Extrapolation/Statistical Analysis to determine a scientific Estimate of Actual Biomass size (the statistics term is called Population), based on the degree of confidence in the sample size....this is part of how the Estimated Biomass figures come to be published.

There are some other techniques used to determine populations in a specific area, (Electro-shock, Angler Reports ie registering with NOAA for a phone survey, and the Angler Surveys that some folks would answer by the Field Reps carrying clipboards, etc) but I don't want to hijack into that area.


If any of you folks are personally familiar with all these methods, please let me know and I will let you start a separate thread to help educate the members here.

[DarkSkies]

Striped Bass East Coast Migration:

As referenced in the thread by Jigfreak -

1. The 3 main populations of Striped Bass are the Chesapeake, Delaware, and Hudson pops.
   
2. There are some other pops which I feel are statistically significant, particularly the main rivers dumping into the LI Sound and some large NJ Rivers.
   
3. I am developing stats on those spawning populations now, and will eventually be writing an article encouraging more study on the striped bass from these areas.

[DarkSkies]

Striped Bass Migration as it applies to NJ and LI Anglers, and the Changes as of Winter 2011:

1. Please be aware that I'm talking about the main populations or bodies of fish one would find on the water here. There are always pockets of fish that will be separated, and I truly believe no 2 years are exactly alike in terms of fish behavior.
   
2. It traditionally holds that the bass run down the coast of NJ in the late fall to winter over in the VA/NC area. Some years they winter over in the Chesapeake Bay area, near the CBBT. Other years they winter further south, off the Central and Southern Coast of NC.
   
3. When the temperature is coldest, they will winter offshore.
   
4. Similar to the bluefish, but not as severe, as recently as 2 years ago the largest body of bass was found wintering approx 30 miles off the Coast of NC.
   
5. As fishing beyond 3 miles is prohibited, and these fish were highly concentrated, many boats pursued them far offshore.
   
6. This resulted in lots of anger from anglers in other states when they saw the laws being broken and fish being slaughtered in their winter grounds. I spend weeks meticulously researching this and wrote an article on it: Fishing in the EEZ.... http://stripersandanglers.com/Forum/...ead.php?t=5801
   
7. Generally speaking, it was thought that Delaware and Chesapeake strains of bass wintered down in the areas I described.
   
8. The Hudson strain was said to winter in the NY Bight, and the deep pools of the upper Hudson below some of the reservoirs.
   
9. By the NY Bight, I'm referring to the deeper waters of the Arthur Kill and NY Harbor as wintering areas.
   
10. Here's why - deeper waters don't get as cold as some of the shallow bay water. The bay and river waters freeze up in the coldest winters, except for the Hudson (usually).
    
11. It has also been said by some, that Hudson fish do not go further south than Cape May.(I'll later come back to show that this is not a valid argument).

[DarkSkies]

Theory VS Reality....as it applied to the 2011 Winter Season - Facts and Myths about Hudson River fish

1. Hudson River fish - As mentioned they usually spend the winter in the NJ/NY Bight and the deep pools of the Hudson River - their range was thought to only extend as far south as Cape May.
   
2. For the winter of 2011 - that proved to be different for the Surfcasters like I and a few fortunate others who pursued them aggressively. We were able to catch fish up to 40lbs, and some of us have catches up to the high 300s in the period of December to February 2012.
   
3. It became clear to us that the fish that were supposed to winter in the Hudson were wintering in the waters off of Monmouth County in a line, that extended to Long Island... between Asbury Park and the Rockaways in Long Island. There was an abundance of fish above this line, from 50' ocean depths to the shallows of the jetties and coves on the oceanfronts. I have confirmed reports from surfcasters catching within this whole area.
   
4. To us, these were Hudson fish that never went upriver.
   
5. Once the temps moderated around the 2nd week of March 2012, these fish started to move around within this area, causing anglers in other areas to think that "new bodies of fish were coming in." This thinking was not entirely accurate because many anglers were not aware that these fish were here for the whole Winter. Again, not trying to argue, but if you were not out fishing for these fish or didn't know someone who was, it would have been understandably hard for you to grasp the concepts I'm talking about here....
   
6. Many folks stick to the old pattern that some of the Hudson fish were down as far as Cape May. This was simply not the case. When the season opened Mar 1 and Cape May Boats started fishing for striped bass, they were simply not there in abundance.
   
7. Somewhere around the end of March, a large body of Stripers was reported off the Delaware Coastline. These stripers, along with some smaller bluefish were making their way North...
   
8. These fish were in fact the Hudson strain of fish, mixed in with the Delaware Strain. There was no other reasonable explanation for these fish being where they were at that time.
   
9. The Hudson fish continued North, where for the first week of April there was tremendous action along the NJ Coast, from LBI to Sandy Hook. Some folks described this action as "EPIC" as they had never seen such level of activity in early April before.
   
10. What many didn't realize is that these fish had been diverted from their normal Hudson migration by the extreme abundance of food, and the temperate ocean waters which seemed to create a "line" across some of the bay areas that the fish would not cross. It was only when the NY Bight started to warm up that these fish moved along with the herring schools to make the long trip upriver to the Hudson spawning grounds.
    
11. As there was such an abundance of bait and moderate temps outside the Hudson, it took a very long time for the bass to even get near the Hudson....hence the great early season back bay in the Raritan Bay.
    
12. At the time of this thread the fish have just started to head up the Hudson en masse...yes there have been isolated catches of larger fish in the Hudson since March 1, but most anglers were not catching far upriver....I'll talk about this in another post.

[DarkSkies]

Another reason I started this S&A continuing education series is that there are respected anglers out there, voices of the communities they are in, who really don't understand migration, striped bass, bluefish, and all other species, to the extent that they are not sure why fish are in a certain area at a certain time of year....

As a result some of of them give out information that is inaccurate. IMO that really doesn't help the guys who are looking to learn. I know many folks just want to catch a fish, and learning for some of them is secondary....but what I have been fortunate to learn is that the conditions about WHY the fish are there, are key to being able to consistently catch fish.....If you truly want to learn, and log your failures as well as your successes, you will be almost be able to predict how the fish will behave, in terms of movement, throughout a season of fishing.

To me, being able to track those fish, and the whys and the subtle nuances of what happens during the migrations, is as exciting as the fishing itself....and it's something a few close friends and I have obsessive conversations about.....





As mentioned, I know that most folks just want to catch a fish....
but what if you could increase your odds over time, by focusing on time, tides, bait patterns, migration and weather patterns, to the extent that you could decrease your time not catching by focusing on times and places where the fish were likely to be?


That's what I'm trying to get folks to think about here, when they read threads like this...
And also, as part of the big picture, to try to understand more about fish and bait migration and how it relates to our perceptions of the fish biomass and it's relative health or lack thereof...



** Also, when I or Finchaser post up a thread, I sometimes think that folks may feel intimidated in responding...remember that there are no "wrong" answers here....we all have opinions, and if you think you have something to contribute, even if you don't agree.... please do....




And there are no stupid questions either...if you were thinking about asking it, someone else may have that same question, so ask away....

[clamchucker]

Very well said dark skies. The migration patterns have changed and the smart folks will recognize it. I enjoy your threads and will try to help you any way that I can. You do have a nice way of putting things into words. It is too much for us older folks to accomplish. Keep up the good work.

[storminsteve]

Great read so far, thanks guys.

[DarkSkies]

Theory VS Reality....as it applied to the 2011 Winter Season - Facts and Myths about Hudson River fish

At the time of this thread the fish have just started to head up the Hudson en masse...yes there have been isolated catches of larger fish in the Hudson since March 1, but most anglers were not catching far upriver....I'll talk about this in another post.

Since this post things have fallen into place nicely. The Hudson River fish are now within the entire range of the Hudson river. It's hard to estimate these things scientifically, and my point is...I think the scientists have trouble estimating these things with accuracy as well.....

However, based on conversations with Charter Boat Capts, and folks who have been fishing for bass regularly, I think it might be fair to say that over 80% of the bass that were in the area, are now in that river or directly in front of it....

The bass action in the back of the Raritan Bay has slowed considerably....although folks are catching, friends who fish regularly confirm this slowdown in action....

There are some bass left in the Bay and Rivers, and some bass left in the ocean, but the numbers are incredibly minimal compared to just a short week ago.....











*******
Look for a period of slow or minimal bass activity for NNJ beaches, for about 5 to 10 days..... (Again this is just an estimate)
This activity should be supplemented by the incredible bay bluefish action as there are reports of larger blues mixed in with cocktail blues (First year in a while this has happened) all over the NY/NJ Bight.


The poor showings for the NJ party boats fishing in the ocean are further evidence of this....

[DarkSkies]

Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Bass....



These fish have finished spawning and are slowly making their way up the NJ Coast from the Cape May area,,,,,there are some nicer fish being caught down that way, but, (logically speaking) you can expect a time lag of a few days for these fish to hit the northern beaches....

Again, this is imprecise and hard to pin down exactly as not all giant schools of bass have traveled together this year as has been the traditional behavior....

What we have had is waves and waves of smaller bodies of fish....and determined anglers will still be able to pick some nice ones here and there......

Look for an increase in activity around the next full moon.... (May full moon)





********
I wish I had more time to go into greater detail but this is the best I can do for now.......
Also don't forget that all major NJ, LI, and CT Rivers have possible populations of bass that spawn in the biggest rivers.....These populations are considered to be statistically insignificant and are therefore not covered by most researchers....


I'm just now starting to put together an article on this and will publish the research when it is finished......

[DarkSkies]

Great read so far, thanks guys.

Very well said dark skies. The migration patterns have changed and the smart folks will recognize it. I enjoy your threads and will try to help you any way that I can. You do have a nice way of putting things into words. It is too much for us older folks to accomplish. Keep up the good work.

Thank you all for the kind words....and Clamchucker I am deeply indebted to folks like you, Finchaser, the OFFC, Surfwalker, and the many others here who have been kind enough to share their experiences and thoughts about fishing for these amazing fish in the last 5 decades....

[DarkSkies]

Chesapeake and Delaware Bay Bass....



These fish have finished spawning and are slowly making their way up the NJ Coast from the Cape May area,,,,,there are some nicer fish being caught down that way, but, (logically speaking) you can expect a time lag of a few days for these fish to hit the northern beaches....

Again, this is imprecise and hard to pin down exactly as not all giant schools of bass have traveled together this year as has been the traditional behavior....

What we have had is waves and waves of smaller bodies of fish....and determined anglers will still be able to pick some nice ones here and there......

Look for an increase in activity around the next full moon.... (May full moon)...

As a footnote to that, the bass are moving quicker than I thought (As I said much of this is based on conversations with folks who live in these respective areas and the hypotheses we come up with together)....but in the end it is all conjecture....

Some times we are right on the $$, other times we have to be aware that these are just predictions or armchair analysis, and can be a little off.


I encourage all those reading this, to keep a detailed log.
Not only of your catches but of the predator and bait migration patterns.

In time you will see how valuable that info becomes. I was able to zero in on a fantastic herring bite last week because of following such migrations.






Moving forward, I think it's fair to say that all the bass that would be spawning in the Hudson,. are in there now...
They will continue do their thing for the next 2 weeks at least, then drop down into the Bight, hungry as hell.

There are some nice waves of bass now along the NJ coast. However I feel that fishing will continue to be inconsistent as these fish are arriving in waves. If you are out there at the right time, surf or boat, you may have a fantastic day of fishing...


The bluefish action in the bays is shaping up to be some of the best inshore and surf action we have had in years. I'm very excited about this. Hope other folks are as well.


the bottom line is...bigger fish are moving along the coast now, and also migratiing through the Mud Hole to LI and further north....you can't catch these fish from behind a computer screen......good luck out there, people....

[nitestrikes]

the bottom line is...bigger fish are moving along the coast now, and also migratiing through the Mud Hole to LI and further north....you can't catch these fish from behind a computer screen......good luck out there, people....

Yes they are.
And you definitely can't catch them in front of a computer.

[DarkSkies]

^^Seems the bigger bluefish are staying slightly out of the sandy beach area and have staged just a tad out there where there are now countless grass shrimp, supplemented by rainfish and spearing that just moved in in numbers last week.










Feeding window:

We finished up around 230. There were kayaks out there but, where I was there were no guys on the beach. Only three guys wading to the chest deep water about 2 to 300 yards out. They got into them good.

Thanks to Rip for that report.
I was trying to explain this to someone else yesterday. Hope I didn't get him mad. I'm a little intense in my explanations at times. There is a definite feeding window when it comes to bass and bluefish. If you are not aware of that you may get skunked and think there are no fish there at all.

Your job as an angler is to figure out what the window is, for that particular place you want to fish.









For bass, the usual window is at night. (for shore bound anglers)
This gets trumped if there are large quantities of bait which spur them to feed in the day (ie blitz action)


For bluefish, this window will mostly exist in the daytime.
Night feeds for bluefish are a whole different ballgame, and really depend on high bait concentrations, pinch points, tides, and current.

For the Raritan bay, the pattern has been that the bottom half of the tide will produce slightly
better bluefish action as the bluefish fill the flats to feed, and then taper off slightly to no action as there is a point after the tide turns when they leave.

As you learn to recognize this, you will learn when to stay and anticipate the action, or when to move on to another area.

Right now, bass are more frequently caught in some Raritan bay areas, near the bottom of the tide.
For those trying to get bass instead of blues, fishing the slack of the ebb, bottom, and bottom of incoming seems to be a good strategy now for northern bay areas.
Same for weakfish, where you will find higher activity around both tide changes.




Yesterday, the only really solid bluefish action (for shore anglers), with double digits being caught by guys who waded out, was toward the bottom of the tide.

There was one other area where they had tremendous action near the top, but that was because some large schools of rainfish moved in, and then the bite became bait-dependent, rather than tide-dependent.

[skinner]

Feeding window:
There is a definite feeding window when it comes to bass and bluefish. If you are not aware of that you may get skunked and think there are no fish there at all.

Your job as an angler is to figure out what the window is, for that particular place you want to fish.

For the Raritan bay, the pattern has been that the bottom half of the tide will produce slightly
better bluefish action as the bluefish fill the flats to feed, and then taper off slightly to no action as there is a point after the tide turns when they leave.

As you learn to recognize this, you will learn when to stay and anticipate the action, or when to move on to another area.

Right now, bass are more frequently caught in some Raritan bay areas, near the bottom of the tide.
For those trying to get bass instead of blues, fishing the slack of the ebb, bottom, and bottom of incoming seems to be a good strategy now for northern bay areas.
Same for weakfish, where you will find higher activity around both tide changes.

Dark I have to hand it to you. You are spot on on a lot of your analysis. You seem to be a fanatic about this. I hope this pays off for you and you get back to fishing again as you deserve some nice fish as well.
This is what Capt Al Ristori posted tonight:

Published: Saturday, May 19, 2012, 8:29 PM Updated: Saturday, May 19, 2012, 9:19 PM

"For some reason, striped bass have been hitting better on the incoming tide lately. I've heard that from several anglers, and Capt. Rob Semkewyc of the Sea Hunter from Atlantic Highlands made the same observation today. His boat only had one bass today, but some big blues were added. Semkewyc noted that the water is discolored on the ebb."
http://www.nj.com/shore/blogs/fishin...e_incomin.html

[ledhead36]

Thanks dark good read, have been finding the bass hitting on the bottom of the tide as well. Not too many bass lately. I think the blues scared them off.

[DarkSkies]

Thanks people for the kind words.
I'm still not fishing regularly as my vehicle is being fixed.
It's killing me, you have no idea the withdrawal I'm going through....(maybe some of ya's do...)

Remember, though, regarding my analysis....
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.,....

And...to learn the things I now know...it took many disappointing trips trying to find fish, figuring out why they weren't there, and parlaying that,. along with a comprehensive log and friendships with some of the best of the best out there....to get a general sense of when one should be out there and putting in their time....

As I've stated over and over in many threads here...for the surf guys the fish are just not as concentrated as they were 8 short years ago....and it really has been more difficult to target and catch fish from the surf with artificials......

Anyone who tells ya it isn't.....isn't being completely honest.....


Thanks again....

[skinner]

I encourage all those reading this, to keep a detailed log.
Not only of your catches but of the predator and bait migration patterns.

In time you will see how valuable that info becomes. I was able to zero in on a fantastic herring bite last week because of following such migrations.

Very good advice ds.

[porgy75]

What would you guys say about the bluefish in this migration? How do they fit into the puzzle. Do they travel together with the stripers? thanks